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[Music]

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logical fallacies

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[Music]

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what are logical fallacies and why is it

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important that critical thinkers should

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know about them

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a logical fallacy is an error we can

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make in reasoning

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but it usually crops up when we are

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discussing or arguing our point of view

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some people might even knowingly use

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them to try and score cheap points in an

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argument

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due to intellectual laziness

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they are traps we can fall into but if

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we know what to look out for

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we can spot them when they occur and

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this time we'll look at the appeal to

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consequences

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this is when it's concluded that an idea

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or proposition is true or false because

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the consequences of it being true

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or false are desirable or undesirable

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to the one making the claim we are all

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guilty of using this fallacy from time

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to time

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it's normal to embellish ideas or

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beliefs we like

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and to denigrate ideas and beliefs we

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don't

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in this case it's using the expected or

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possible

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outcomes whether they happen or not to

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bolster our point of view

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this fallacy comes in two forms positive

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and negative skeptics complain about

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alternative medicine and

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things like ear candles being sold in my

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pharmacy

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but i can tell you many people say they

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really work

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and come here to buy them also

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my profits depend on it here we have an

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example of the positive form the

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pharmacist is using the perceived

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positive outcomes or consequences to his

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customers

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and the real financial outcome to his

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business

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to justify the products on sale in the

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case of something like ear candles

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where you stick a tube of wax in your

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ear canal

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and light the other end yes

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this really is a thing glowing

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testimonials and good sales have

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no bearing on the fact that these things

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are dangerous

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nonsense gmos are evil

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and must be stopped now who knows what

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awful things will happen to people

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eating genetically modified foods

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they might end up glowing in the dark or

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worse here we have an example of the

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negative form

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it is being argued that gmos are bad

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because of the negative

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consequences on humans however

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as no one has been able to read a book

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in the dark owing to glowing skin

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or indeed had any reported negative

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consequences at

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all from eating gmos the original

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premise of the argument

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does not hold up you see what happens

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when we stop

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accepting creationism and turn to the

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theory

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of evolution immoral conduct as society

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turns to

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survival of the fittest caring and

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compassion

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are left behind again the logical

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fallacy in its negative form

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it might come as a shock to creationists

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but

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caring and compassion just like every

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other emotion

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comes about in our species via the

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process of

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evolution scaremongering about feared

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negative

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outcomes of accepting evolution does not

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strengthen the case for creationism one

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little bit

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[Music]

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it's so easy to let ourselves think

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about the consequences or outcomes

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of ideas beliefs or practices

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and as we've seen it's also

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easy to use these perceived outcomes to

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color our reasoning

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or to give us faulty ammunition when

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arguing

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this time we'll look at the texas

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sharpshooter fallacy

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also known as the clustering illusion

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this is when you downplay or ignore

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information that

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doesn't support your argument or point

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of view and

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focus on information that seems to be

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more in line

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with what you want to be true it is also

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imposing meaning

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onto randomness this must surely be one

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of the more

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interesting names for any logical

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fallacy

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it comes about from the idea that

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someone would shoot

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at random at the side of a barn or fence

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then paint a target on later

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around the bullet holes that happen to

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be close together

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to make it appear as if the shots were

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on target

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in 1555 the prophet nostradamus

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foresaw the coronavirus plague of

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2020. he wrote in century 2

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quatrain 35 the great plague of the

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maritime city

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will not cease until there be avenged

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the death

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of the just blood condemned for the

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price without crime

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of the great lady unwronged by pretence

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finding meaning in the quatrains of

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nostradamus

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is an old game since he wrote 942 of

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them

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interpretation

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and even mistranslation from the french

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used in the 16th century

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it's really not that hard to find at

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least one

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or even more you can make fit events

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of more recent times or at any time

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since they were written

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just look for the lines that seem to fit

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and ignore the ones that don't

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much of this quatrain the maritime city

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the lady unwronged are ignored

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this same quatrain has also been used to

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claim

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nostradamus foresaw the great plague of

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london

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in 1665.

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if you'd like to know more there is an

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excellent book

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called the mask of nostradamus written

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by james randy

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when tested the water diviner found

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three

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bottles of water that were hidden from

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view

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one after the other after the other now

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that's

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just amazing and points to water

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divining

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being real this can and does happen

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during tests of water divining

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but short runs of success are expected

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when conducting many tests

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it also happens in casinos when someone

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might get lucky on the roulette table

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two or three or even four times in a row

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but overall we all know the house wins

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in the end

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we need to take all the results into

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account before we can

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reach a real conclusion it's

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just so strange that bad things

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seem to happen to me in threes

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first i lost my job then my dog got sick

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and now the tv won't work

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good and bad things happen from time to

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time

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and both can be random

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since many people have already heard the

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saying bad things come in

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threes or even famous people die in

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threes and so on it's all

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too easy for us to see a pattern after

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three such events ah

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but what if bad things come in fours or

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looking for things that seem to line up

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is all very well

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but you need to also take into account

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all the related things or events that

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don't line up

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as they too must be considered in the

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overall pattern of events before you

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reach a conclusion

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this time we'll look at the anecdotal

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evidence fallacy

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this is when you are swayed into taking

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up a position

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or belief based on isolated examples of

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data

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rather than reliable evidence this

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logical fallacy

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is surely one of the most common and can

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be seen in many different circumstances

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it can come about from the intrinsic

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trust we have in the perceived wisdom of

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our friends

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and especially our family after all

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mother knows best i hear the

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vaxxed bus is touring the country they

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make videos of parents and others

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telling their stories of vaccine damage

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it seems then there must be something to

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the claims that

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vaccinations are unsafe here we have a

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classic case of people being swayed by

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the anecdotal evidence fallacy

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if vaccination was as dangerous as the

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anti-vaxxers would have us believe

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that fact would be reflected in ongoing

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studies worldwide

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but it can be compelling to see people

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pour their hearts out

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when they really do think vaccines have

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damaged their children

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people are so skeptical of acupuncture i

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bet they haven't tried it for themselves

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i was skeptical too

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until i tried it and i can tell you that

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i know it works because it worked for me

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skeptics have known for years that this

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sort of anecdotal evidence

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is almost impossible to counter when

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someone

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for whatever reason is convinced that a

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treatment has worked for them

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they will and understandably so

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stick to their guns no matter what

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alas in this case the scientific

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evidence for the claims of acupuncture

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are very much lacking they say

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the world is heating up and sea levels

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are rising

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but my family has been running the same

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oyster farm on the river

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for generations and you know what

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we haven't noticed any change in the

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water levels

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at all this example is based on a real

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interview with an oyster farmer in

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australia

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even though he might work on the river

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that doesn't mean he or his family going

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back

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years have kept accurate details of

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water levels

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however to him things seem more or less

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the same

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based on this he is ready to deny

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it is often very convenient to rely on

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anecdotal evidence

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and at some times it can seem intuitive

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no matter how sure we are we should

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never be afraid to check the basis of

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our opinions and beliefs

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this time we'll look at the burden of

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proof fallacy

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this is when instead of presenting

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evidence to support your claim

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you insist that the person doubting it

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prove your claim to be false

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this tactic which can seem reasonable to

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the one committing the fallacy

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is heard again and again in skeptical

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investigations

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it's a sort of get out of jail free card

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and gives the person making the claim a

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quick way to appear

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to stump the skeptics particularly

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by asking the skeptic to disprove

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something

292
00:13:03,910 --> 00:13:01,600
instead of providing evidence to support

293
00:13:05,910 --> 00:13:03,920
the claim being made

294
00:13:07,990 --> 00:13:05,920
i'll never forget the night i was

295
00:13:09,910 --> 00:13:08,000
abducted by aliens

296
00:13:11,269 --> 00:13:09,920
i was driving in the countryside when

297
00:13:14,470 --> 00:13:11,279
they beamed me

298
00:13:17,829 --> 00:13:14,480
up to their spaceship two hours later

299
00:13:21,350 --> 00:13:17,839
i was back in my car no one from

300
00:13:24,470 --> 00:13:21,360
police to skeptics have been

301
00:13:27,030 --> 00:13:24,480
able to prove it didn't happen

302
00:13:29,670 --> 00:13:27,040
this situation is very familiar to

303
00:13:32,310 --> 00:13:29,680
skeptical investigators

304
00:13:33,030 --> 00:13:32,320
if the person in question had more to

305
00:13:36,550 --> 00:13:33,040
the claim

306
00:13:39,670 --> 00:13:36,560
than just his story maybe a fragment of

307
00:13:40,389 --> 00:13:39,680
alien technology he wouldn't need to

308
00:13:43,910 --> 00:13:40,399
worry about

309
00:13:46,870 --> 00:13:43,920
others not being able to disprove it

310
00:13:48,710 --> 00:13:46,880
this new drug to fight coronavirus is

311
00:13:51,590 --> 00:13:48,720
just amazing

312
00:13:52,150 --> 00:13:51,600
it's all natural and made from a rare

313
00:13:55,590 --> 00:13:52,160
moss

314
00:13:56,710 --> 00:13:55,600
only found in the amazon i've seen it

315
00:13:59,110 --> 00:13:56,720
work for myself

316
00:14:00,069 --> 00:13:59,120
and unless the government can prove

317
00:14:02,310 --> 00:14:00,079
otherwise

318
00:14:03,509 --> 00:14:02,320
it must be rolled out as soon as

319
00:14:06,470 --> 00:14:03,519
possible

320
00:14:07,430 --> 00:14:06,480
no matter how appealing it is to think a

321
00:14:09,829 --> 00:14:07,440
new drug

322
00:14:10,550 --> 00:14:09,839
or even a modality of alternative

323
00:14:13,750 --> 00:14:10,560
medicine

324
00:14:16,310 --> 00:14:13,760
works it must first go through the

325
00:14:19,030 --> 00:14:16,320
rigorous scientific trials and tests

326
00:14:21,990 --> 00:14:19,040
to show it does in fact work that's

327
00:14:25,910 --> 00:14:22,000
where the burden of evidence lies

328
00:14:28,550 --> 00:14:25,920
and by the way any alternative medicine

329
00:14:29,430 --> 00:14:28,560
that does past scientific trials and

330
00:14:32,550 --> 00:14:29,440
tests

331
00:14:35,990 --> 00:14:32,560
that is is actually shown to work

332
00:14:39,189 --> 00:14:36,000
is no longer called alternative medicine

333
00:14:42,230 --> 00:14:39,199
it's called medicine i

334
00:14:43,990 --> 00:14:42,240
had an amazing reading with a medium who

335
00:14:47,350 --> 00:14:44,000
contacted the spirit of my

336
00:14:48,790 --> 00:14:47,360
dead grandmother and told me things only

337
00:14:51,189 --> 00:14:48,800
she would know

338
00:14:52,069 --> 00:14:51,199
how can you prove that it wasn't really

339
00:14:55,110 --> 00:14:52,079
her

340
00:14:56,230 --> 00:14:55,120
coming through ultimately no one can

341
00:14:58,949 --> 00:14:56,240
prove the medium

342
00:15:00,150 --> 00:14:58,959
didn't contact the dead grandmother but

343
00:15:02,150 --> 00:15:00,160
then again

344
00:15:04,949 --> 00:15:02,160
no one can prove it wasn't another

345
00:15:07,670 --> 00:15:04,959
spirit pretending to be the grandmother

346
00:15:09,590 --> 00:15:07,680
or a tricky alien from another dimension

347
00:15:14,150 --> 00:15:09,600
pretending to be the grandmother

348
00:15:16,949 --> 00:15:14,160
and on and on what we can do

349
00:15:18,550 --> 00:15:16,959
if the reading was recorded for example

350
00:15:21,269 --> 00:15:18,560
is to walk the person

351
00:15:23,350 --> 00:15:21,279
through what was said pointing out the

352
00:15:27,590 --> 00:15:23,360
cold and hot reading tricks that may

353
00:15:30,230 --> 00:15:27,600
have been used

354
00:15:32,710 --> 00:15:30,240
remember that the burden of proof always

355
00:15:35,189 --> 00:15:32,720
lies with the one making the claim

356
00:15:38,790 --> 00:15:35,199
and asking them for evidence is an

357
00:15:41,350 --> 00:15:38,800
entirely reasonable request

358
00:15:41,829 --> 00:15:41,360
while it is possible sometimes to indeed

359
00:15:44,949 --> 00:15:41,839
prove

360
00:15:46,470 --> 00:15:44,959
something didn't happen many times it is

361
00:15:50,790 --> 00:15:46,480
not

362
00:15:54,230 --> 00:15:50,800
is real

363
00:15:56,910 --> 00:15:54,240
as dr carl sagan famously said

364
00:16:07,670 --> 00:15:56,920
extraordinary claims require

365
00:16:11,749 --> 00:16:10,550
this time we'll look at poisoning the

366
00:16:14,949 --> 00:16:11,759
well

367
00:16:17,269 --> 00:16:14,959
also known as smear tactics this is when

368
00:16:19,990 --> 00:16:17,279
you try to discredit your opponent

369
00:16:21,269 --> 00:16:20,000
or an institution especially in the

370
00:16:24,310 --> 00:16:21,279
minds of others

371
00:16:25,749 --> 00:16:24,320
before even entering into a debate or

372
00:16:28,790 --> 00:16:25,759
conversation

373
00:16:31,670 --> 00:16:28,800
this can take many forms and can be used

374
00:16:34,790 --> 00:16:31,680
in many situations

375
00:16:35,990 --> 00:16:34,800
casting doubt on people or ideas you

376
00:16:39,350 --> 00:16:36,000
don't agree with

377
00:16:40,949 --> 00:16:39,360
is hard to avoid but you shouldn't use

378
00:16:44,389 --> 00:16:40,959
it in place of a sound

379
00:16:46,310 --> 00:16:44,399
argument based on the points they raise

380
00:16:48,550 --> 00:16:46,320
thank you ladies and gentlemen for

381
00:16:51,509 --> 00:16:48,560
hearing my opening arguments

382
00:16:52,949 --> 00:16:51,519
now it's time for my opponent to try and

383
00:16:55,030 --> 00:16:52,959
give their side

384
00:16:57,590 --> 00:16:55,040
if nothing else let's hope they're at

385
00:17:01,189 --> 00:16:57,600
least entertaining

386
00:17:03,430 --> 00:17:01,199
not very polite or sporting here we have

387
00:17:04,870 --> 00:17:03,440
a case of someone trying to belittle

388
00:17:07,189 --> 00:17:04,880
their opponent

389
00:17:08,549 --> 00:17:07,199
and by extension the arguments they

390
00:17:10,949 --> 00:17:08,559
might use

391
00:17:12,470 --> 00:17:10,959
before even hearing what they have to

392
00:17:14,470 --> 00:17:12,480
say

393
00:17:15,590 --> 00:17:14,480
what you're thinking of applying for the

394
00:17:18,949 --> 00:17:15,600
skeptic's cash

395
00:17:19,750 --> 00:17:18,959
prize look i know your psychic powers

396
00:17:21,990 --> 00:17:19,760
are real

397
00:17:23,590 --> 00:17:22,000
but i wouldn't bother applying if i was

398
00:17:27,029 --> 00:17:23,600
you those skeptics

399
00:17:29,029 --> 00:17:27,039
are known to cheat as no one has ever

400
00:17:31,110 --> 00:17:29,039
claimed the prize

401
00:17:33,270 --> 00:17:31,120
the myth of the skeptics cheating when

402
00:17:34,870 --> 00:17:33,280
testing people for the cash prize is

403
00:17:37,350 --> 00:17:34,880
widespread

404
00:17:39,110 --> 00:17:37,360
it often comes about from disgruntled

405
00:17:43,270 --> 00:17:39,120
applicants

406
00:17:45,990 --> 00:17:43,280
who until now have always failed

407
00:17:47,590 --> 00:17:46,000
some honestly believe they were somehow

408
00:17:49,669 --> 00:17:47,600
cheated out of the money

409
00:17:51,909 --> 00:17:49,679
and will warn others who might want to

410
00:17:55,190 --> 00:17:51,919
apply

411
00:17:57,270 --> 00:17:55,200
in reality skeptical groups go to great

412
00:18:00,470 --> 00:17:57,280
lengths to make sure the tests are

413
00:18:02,789 --> 00:18:00,480
fair and honest for all concerned

414
00:18:03,909 --> 00:18:02,799
so to argue that skeptics are going to

415
00:18:06,150 --> 00:18:03,919
cheat you

416
00:18:06,950 --> 00:18:06,160
or set you up to fail if you are a

417
00:18:09,510 --> 00:18:06,960
psychic

418
00:18:11,510 --> 00:18:09,520
just poisons any possibility of

419
00:18:14,870 --> 00:18:11,520
constructive dialogue about

420
00:18:17,190 --> 00:18:14,880
testing extraordinary claims

421
00:18:17,990 --> 00:18:17,200
at the start of the pandemic those

422
00:18:21,270 --> 00:18:18,000
government

423
00:18:22,950 --> 00:18:21,280
so-called medical experts told us that

424
00:18:26,549 --> 00:18:22,960
we didn't need to wear

425
00:18:27,909 --> 00:18:26,559
masks now they're saying that we do

426
00:18:30,070 --> 00:18:27,919
they clearly don't know what they're

427
00:18:31,190 --> 00:18:30,080
talking about with their chopping and

428
00:18:33,270 --> 00:18:31,200
changing

429
00:18:34,390 --> 00:18:33,280
you're not going to get real information

430
00:18:37,750 --> 00:18:34,400
from them

431
00:18:39,590 --> 00:18:37,760
so if i were you i wouldn't even bother

432
00:18:40,870 --> 00:18:39,600
listening to their advice about getting

433
00:18:43,990 --> 00:18:40,880
vaccinated against

434
00:18:46,390 --> 00:18:44,000
covert 19 in the future

435
00:18:47,909 --> 00:18:46,400
here we have a case of casting doubt on

436
00:18:50,710 --> 00:18:47,919
a future vaccine

437
00:18:52,390 --> 00:18:50,720
based on actions taken early on in the

438
00:18:55,990 --> 00:18:52,400
pandemic

439
00:18:57,830 --> 00:18:56,000
in this scenario the medical authorities

440
00:18:59,590 --> 00:18:57,840
who are the proponents of a future

441
00:19:03,110 --> 00:18:59,600
vaccine are being

442
00:19:06,150 --> 00:19:03,120
preemptively attacked the science

443
00:19:08,630 --> 00:19:06,160
and our understanding of covert 19 is

444
00:19:11,669 --> 00:19:08,640
unfolding before our eyes

445
00:19:13,190 --> 00:19:11,679
and medical advice is given on the basis

446
00:19:16,630 --> 00:19:13,200
of the latest known

447
00:19:19,590 --> 00:19:16,640
information at any given time

448
00:19:20,390 --> 00:19:19,600
this is how science works it is not a

449
00:19:26,470 --> 00:19:20,400
linear

450
00:19:31,430 --> 00:19:28,630
poisoning the well is something that can

451
00:19:33,750 --> 00:19:31,440
happen before we even know it

452
00:19:36,310 --> 00:19:33,760
if you have a low opinion of your

453
00:19:38,870 --> 00:19:36,320
opponent or their point of view

454
00:19:39,830 --> 00:19:38,880
or maybe even you are ignorant of the

455
00:19:42,710 --> 00:19:39,840
issue

456
00:19:44,950 --> 00:19:42,720
it's all too easy for your emotions to

457
00:19:50,830 --> 00:19:44,960
get the better of you

458
00:19:50,840 --> 00:20:00,710
hand

459
00:20:07,110 --> 00:20:04,470
this time we'll look at weasel words

460
00:20:08,470 --> 00:20:07,120
these are words or phrases that seem to

461
00:20:10,710 --> 00:20:08,480
point in one direction

462
00:20:12,950 --> 00:20:10,720
or give a certain impression but in

463
00:20:16,390 --> 00:20:12,960
reality are often meaningless

464
00:20:19,669 --> 00:20:16,400
or even misleading it can be

465
00:20:20,070 --> 00:20:19,679
hard bordering on impossible to get some

466
00:20:23,110 --> 00:20:20,080
people

467
00:20:24,870 --> 00:20:23,120
to use straightforward no-nonsense

468
00:20:26,470 --> 00:20:24,880
language when putting forward their

469
00:20:28,789 --> 00:20:26,480
point of view

470
00:20:30,870 --> 00:20:28,799
we see this so many times in the world

471
00:20:33,510 --> 00:20:30,880
of politics for example

472
00:20:34,710 --> 00:20:33,520
when so-called spin doctors advise

473
00:20:37,750 --> 00:20:34,720
politicians

474
00:20:40,630 --> 00:20:37,760
on how to not answer questions

475
00:20:43,029 --> 00:20:40,640
but weasel words also pop up in many

476
00:20:45,909 --> 00:20:43,039
other situations

477
00:20:48,149 --> 00:20:45,919
this amazing and all-natural supplement

478
00:20:50,149 --> 00:20:48,159
has been used traditionally by

479
00:20:51,510 --> 00:20:50,159
thousands of people all over the world

480
00:20:54,710 --> 00:20:51,520
for years

481
00:20:56,470 --> 00:20:54,720
it may assist in reducing the length and

482
00:21:00,230 --> 00:20:56,480
severity of a cold

483
00:21:03,669 --> 00:21:00,240
or the flu here the word traditionally

484
00:21:05,669 --> 00:21:03,679
and the word may are the weasel words

485
00:21:07,110 --> 00:21:05,679
it doesn't matter if something has a

486
00:21:10,390 --> 00:21:07,120
long tradition

487
00:21:13,430 --> 00:21:10,400
it still might not work as claimed

488
00:21:16,710 --> 00:21:13,440
but using the word traditionally does

489
00:21:18,630 --> 00:21:16,720
seem to give the claim merit we've

490
00:21:21,909 --> 00:21:18,640
looked at the logical fallacy of

491
00:21:24,950 --> 00:21:21,919
the appeal to tradition before

492
00:21:27,029 --> 00:21:24,960
also using the word may

493
00:21:28,870 --> 00:21:27,039
gives the impression that the claim is

494
00:21:32,230 --> 00:21:28,880
true or at least

495
00:21:35,830 --> 00:21:32,240
could be true but we could also say

496
00:21:36,870 --> 00:21:35,840
may not if the claim is ever proven to

497
00:21:41,430 --> 00:21:36,880
be true

498
00:21:44,950 --> 00:21:41,440
then the words will assist could be used

499
00:21:46,310 --> 00:21:44,960
you think the earth is really billions

500
00:21:49,909 --> 00:21:46,320
of years old and

501
00:21:52,470 --> 00:21:49,919
evolution is real not so fast

502
00:21:53,510 --> 00:21:52,480
there is a growing body of evidence that

503
00:21:56,870 --> 00:21:53,520
creationism

504
00:22:00,070 --> 00:21:56,880
is true as more and more scientists

505
00:22:03,029 --> 00:22:00,080
accept the account given in the bible

506
00:22:03,909 --> 00:22:03,039
in this example the terms are growing

507
00:22:07,830 --> 00:22:03,919
body

508
00:22:10,789 --> 00:22:07,840
and more and more are the weasel words

509
00:22:12,789 --> 00:22:10,799
they sound grand enough but where is the

510
00:22:14,789 --> 00:22:12,799
raw data from

511
00:22:16,870 --> 00:22:14,799
has there been a proper survey of the

512
00:22:19,830 --> 00:22:16,880
relevant scientists

513
00:22:22,470 --> 00:22:19,840
are these results published without

514
00:22:26,310 --> 00:22:22,480
providing this extra information

515
00:22:28,710 --> 00:22:26,320
the veracity of the claim is in doubt

516
00:22:31,029 --> 00:22:28,720
i know i can get passionate from time to

517
00:22:34,070 --> 00:22:31,039
time when expressing my point of view

518
00:22:37,270 --> 00:22:34,080
i would like to say i'm sorry if

519
00:22:41,270 --> 00:22:37,280
anyone took offense to what i said

520
00:22:43,830 --> 00:22:41,280
this is known as the non-apology apology

521
00:22:45,750 --> 00:22:43,840
it gives the impression that someone is

522
00:22:49,430 --> 00:22:45,760
acknowledging a wrongdoing

523
00:22:52,070 --> 00:22:49,440
and trying to make amends but in reality

524
00:22:55,430 --> 00:22:52,080
it's putting the focus on others and

525
00:22:58,470 --> 00:22:55,440
somehow making them at fault

526
00:23:00,870 --> 00:22:58,480
if a real apology was offered it would

527
00:23:03,669 --> 00:23:00,880
sound something like

528
00:23:08,630 --> 00:23:03,679
i would like to say i'm sorry that i

529
00:23:11,750 --> 00:23:08,640
caused a fence

530
00:23:13,029 --> 00:23:11,760
from advertising to answers given by

531
00:23:16,630 --> 00:23:13,039
politicians

532
00:23:19,430 --> 00:23:16,640
to even everyday conversations

533
00:23:20,149 --> 00:23:19,440
weasel words are a way to use language

534
00:23:23,510 --> 00:23:20,159
itself

535
00:23:25,190 --> 00:23:23,520
as a distraction if you are unsure about

536
00:23:28,549 --> 00:23:25,200
what someone is saying

537
00:23:29,990 --> 00:23:28,559
you have the right to ask them to put it

538
00:23:44,789 --> 00:23:30,000
another way

539
00:23:49,190 --> 00:23:46,950
this time we'll look at the hasty

540
00:23:51,909 --> 00:23:49,200
generalization fallacy

541
00:23:52,630 --> 00:23:51,919
also known as the argument from small

542
00:23:55,909 --> 00:23:52,640
numbers

543
00:23:58,789 --> 00:23:55,919
and the lonely fact fallacy

544
00:23:59,590 --> 00:23:58,799
this is when you base your conclusion on

545
00:24:03,350 --> 00:23:59,600
limited

546
00:24:05,830 --> 00:24:03,360
or inconclusive information

547
00:24:08,070 --> 00:24:05,840
it's very easy for us to accept limited

548
00:24:11,110 --> 00:24:08,080
information or examples when we

549
00:24:12,870 --> 00:24:11,120
already believe in the premise claim or

550
00:24:15,350 --> 00:24:12,880
point of view

551
00:24:16,149 --> 00:24:15,360
but getting to the truth of the matter

552
00:24:18,390 --> 00:24:16,159
often means

553
00:24:20,070 --> 00:24:18,400
wading through a great deal of examples

554
00:24:23,110 --> 00:24:20,080
and results

555
00:24:24,070 --> 00:24:23,120
did you see that psychic on live tv the

556
00:24:27,029 --> 00:24:24,080
other night

557
00:24:30,230 --> 00:24:27,039
a skeptic held up a sealed envelope with

558
00:24:32,070 --> 00:24:30,240
a number from 1 to 10 written inside

559
00:24:33,510 --> 00:24:32,080
the psychic predicted the number would

560
00:24:37,269 --> 00:24:33,520
be four

561
00:24:40,549 --> 00:24:37,279
and she was right she truly has

562
00:24:43,029 --> 00:24:40,559
amazing powers in this case

563
00:24:44,950 --> 00:24:43,039
the so-called psychic had a one in ten

564
00:24:46,470 --> 00:24:44,960
chance of simply guessing the right

565
00:24:49,029 --> 00:24:46,480
number

566
00:24:50,789 --> 00:24:49,039
in order to draw any real conclusions

567
00:24:53,669 --> 00:24:50,799
about her alleged powers

568
00:24:54,630 --> 00:24:53,679
this test would need to be repeated many

569
00:24:57,990 --> 00:24:54,640
times and

570
00:25:00,630 --> 00:24:58,000
under proper scientific conditions

571
00:25:01,830 --> 00:25:00,640
these sorts of tests can take up quite a

572
00:25:06,070 --> 00:25:01,840
lot of time

573
00:25:09,110 --> 00:25:06,080
especially on live tv in a recent survey

574
00:25:09,669 --> 00:25:09,120
80 of people questioned said that they

575
00:25:12,070 --> 00:25:09,679
did not

576
00:25:13,110 --> 00:25:12,080
trust that vaccinations were safe and

577
00:25:16,390 --> 00:25:13,120
effective

578
00:25:19,990 --> 00:25:16,400
eighty percent is a strong result

579
00:25:22,630 --> 00:25:20,000
or is it the question we must ask

580
00:25:24,230 --> 00:25:22,640
is how many people took part in the

581
00:25:27,190 --> 00:25:24,240
survey

582
00:25:30,070 --> 00:25:27,200
if only five people took part then it

583
00:25:33,190 --> 00:25:30,080
only took four of them to give the 80

584
00:25:35,990 --> 00:25:33,200
result a survey with

585
00:25:36,470 --> 00:25:36,000
only five people is hardly enough to

586
00:25:39,269 --> 00:25:36,480
draw

587
00:25:40,789 --> 00:25:39,279
any real conclusions about society in

588
00:25:44,070 --> 00:25:40,799
general

589
00:25:44,710 --> 00:25:44,080
in order to test a water diviner we set

590
00:25:48,070 --> 00:25:44,720
up

591
00:25:50,149 --> 00:25:48,080
ten sealed buckets some with water

592
00:25:53,669 --> 00:25:50,159
inside some with sand

593
00:25:55,430 --> 00:25:53,679
we planned to run ten rounds giving us a

594
00:25:58,310 --> 00:25:55,440
score out of a hundred

595
00:26:00,870 --> 00:25:58,320
but after failing the very first round

596
00:26:03,750 --> 00:26:00,880
the water diviner stormed off

597
00:26:04,789 --> 00:26:03,760
in a huff once again we can see that

598
00:26:08,230 --> 00:26:04,799
water divining

599
00:26:11,510 --> 00:26:08,240
does not work this example is based on

600
00:26:14,390 --> 00:26:11,520
real events while it's fair to say

601
00:26:17,510 --> 00:26:14,400
that as of yet no water diviner has

602
00:26:19,990 --> 00:26:17,520
passed a test of their claimed powers

603
00:26:20,950 --> 00:26:20,000
in this case the result would be null

604
00:26:24,070 --> 00:26:20,960
and void

605
00:26:26,549 --> 00:26:24,080
as the test was not completed

606
00:26:29,430 --> 00:26:26,559
so it would be incorrect to conclude

607
00:26:31,269 --> 00:26:29,440
that this diviner is necessarily lacking

608
00:26:34,940 --> 00:26:31,279
in claimed ability

609
00:26:37,110 --> 00:26:34,950
based on an incomplete test

610
00:26:39,269 --> 00:26:37,120
[Music]

611
00:26:40,310 --> 00:26:39,279
limited results that appear to support

612
00:26:43,669 --> 00:26:40,320
our point of view

613
00:26:45,990 --> 00:26:43,679
are very easy to accept although it can

614
00:26:49,029 --> 00:26:46,000
require more time and effort

615
00:26:50,070 --> 00:26:49,039
generally speaking the more data points

616
00:26:52,149 --> 00:26:50,080
you have

617
00:27:04,950 --> 00:26:52,159
the better it is for getting to the

618
00:27:09,190 --> 00:27:07,510
this time we'll look at appeal to the

619
00:27:11,990 --> 00:27:09,200
stone

620
00:27:13,590 --> 00:27:12,000
this is when you dismiss an idea or

621
00:27:16,470 --> 00:27:13,600
statement as absurd

622
00:27:18,310 --> 00:27:16,480
invalid or incorrect without giving a

623
00:27:22,230 --> 00:27:18,320
satisfactory reason

624
00:27:23,990 --> 00:27:22,240
as to why many armchair skeptics can be

625
00:27:27,430 --> 00:27:24,000
guilty of this fallacy

626
00:27:30,789 --> 00:27:27,440
as it is all too easy to reject an idea

627
00:27:33,430 --> 00:27:30,799
without really understanding the topic

628
00:27:33,990 --> 00:27:33,440
but then again those who believe in

629
00:27:37,029 --> 00:27:34,000
talking to

630
00:27:37,669 --> 00:27:37,039
the dead for example can be too quick to

631
00:27:41,510 --> 00:27:37,679
write off

632
00:27:42,389 --> 00:27:41,520
more mundane explanations of course i

633
00:27:44,870 --> 00:27:42,399
don't believe in

634
00:27:45,830 --> 00:27:44,880
little green men coming here and flying

635
00:27:47,990 --> 00:27:45,840
sources

636
00:27:49,430 --> 00:27:48,000
i don't know much about space travel but

637
00:27:52,470 --> 00:27:49,440
the whole idea is

638
00:27:55,110 --> 00:27:52,480
just ridiculous so far

639
00:27:58,070 --> 00:27:55,120
there is no good evidence to suggest

640
00:27:59,990 --> 00:27:58,080
aliens or robotic ships have visited the

641
00:28:03,190 --> 00:28:00,000
earth from other planets

642
00:28:04,389 --> 00:28:03,200
however it would be naive to write the

643
00:28:07,190 --> 00:28:04,399
whole idea of

644
00:28:09,830 --> 00:28:07,200
as being ridiculous without some

645
00:28:13,590 --> 00:28:09,840
understanding of the topic

646
00:28:15,789 --> 00:28:13,600
as carl sagan said for all i know

647
00:28:18,310 --> 00:28:15,799
we may be visited by a different

648
00:28:21,269 --> 00:28:18,320
extraterrestrial civilization

649
00:28:23,990 --> 00:28:21,279
every second tuesday but there's no

650
00:28:26,389 --> 00:28:24,000
support for this appealing idea

651
00:28:27,669 --> 00:28:26,399
i hear that thousands of scientists have

652
00:28:30,149 --> 00:28:27,679
signed a paper

653
00:28:31,190 --> 00:28:30,159
calling for action on climate change but

654
00:28:34,149 --> 00:28:31,200
i don't care

655
00:28:36,470 --> 00:28:34,159
climate change is just made up and silly

656
00:28:37,590 --> 00:28:36,480
not understanding a topic like climate

657
00:28:40,950 --> 00:28:37,600
change and calling it

658
00:28:43,750 --> 00:28:40,960
silly is a very poor way of reasoning

659
00:28:45,669 --> 00:28:43,760
we owe it to ourselves to do at least

660
00:28:49,029 --> 00:28:45,679
some research on a topic

661
00:28:49,990 --> 00:28:49,039
before taking a strong stand one way or

662
00:28:53,350 --> 00:28:50,000
the other

663
00:28:56,470 --> 00:28:53,360
the earth is flat i tell you i mean

664
00:28:58,070 --> 00:28:56,480
just look at the horizon it's flat the

665
00:29:01,190 --> 00:28:58,080
idea that the earth is round

666
00:29:04,389 --> 00:29:01,200
is absurd it's funny to think that

667
00:29:07,110 --> 00:29:04,399
once upon a time thousands of years ago

668
00:29:08,070 --> 00:29:07,120
people thought the same thing we can

669
00:29:10,310 --> 00:29:08,080
forgive those

670
00:29:11,669 --> 00:29:10,320
ancient people as they didn't know

671
00:29:15,110 --> 00:29:11,679
better

672
00:29:17,830 --> 00:29:15,120
but for the last 2 000 years it has been

673
00:29:19,669 --> 00:29:17,840
widely accepted and understood that we

674
00:29:22,549 --> 00:29:19,679
live on a globe

675
00:29:26,389 --> 00:29:22,559
no matter how absurd some people think

676
00:29:28,870 --> 00:29:26,399
that is

677
00:29:29,590 --> 00:29:28,880
even if you think an idea or claim is

678
00:29:32,310 --> 00:29:29,600
just too

679
00:29:34,870 --> 00:29:32,320
silly for you to entertain it is worth

680
00:29:38,230 --> 00:29:34,880
the time to come to an understanding as

681
00:29:40,149 --> 00:29:38,240
to why you made that determination

682
00:29:42,070 --> 00:29:40,159
does the claim violate the laws of

683
00:29:46,310 --> 00:29:42,080
physics for example

684
00:29:48,470 --> 00:29:46,320
if so which laws and why

685
00:29:50,149 --> 00:29:48,480
what other reasons do you have to reject

686
00:29:52,230 --> 00:29:50,159
the claim

687
00:29:54,149 --> 00:29:52,240
then at least you'll have a better

688
00:30:04,549 --> 00:29:54,159
answer than simply calling it

689
00:30:08,549 --> 00:30:06,950
this time we'll look at the fallacy

690
00:30:14,789 --> 00:30:08,559
fallacy

691
00:30:16,070 --> 00:30:14,799
this is when because your opponent uses

692
00:30:19,269 --> 00:30:16,080
logical fallacies

693
00:30:23,510 --> 00:30:19,279
you assume their main argument or point

694
00:30:25,830 --> 00:30:23,520
must therefore also be wrong

695
00:30:27,510 --> 00:30:25,840
winning your argument due to the errors

696
00:30:29,510 --> 00:30:27,520
made by your opponent

697
00:30:32,230 --> 00:30:29,520
might be a little like winning the

698
00:30:34,310 --> 00:30:32,240
battle but losing the war

699
00:30:35,269 --> 00:30:34,320
not everyone is good at putting their

700
00:30:38,710 --> 00:30:35,279
case

701
00:30:40,710 --> 00:30:38,720
even if their main point is true

702
00:30:42,870 --> 00:30:40,720
my friend was trying to convince me that

703
00:30:45,110 --> 00:30:42,880
nasa really did send astronauts to the

704
00:30:48,950 --> 00:30:45,120
moon in 1969

705
00:30:50,950 --> 00:30:48,960
but her arguments really didn't stack up

706
00:30:53,830 --> 00:30:50,960
telling me it's true because everybody

707
00:30:56,070 --> 00:30:53,840
knows it's true is like a cop-out to me

708
00:30:57,830 --> 00:30:56,080
no reason then for me to change my mind

709
00:31:00,470 --> 00:30:57,840
i think it was all faked

710
00:31:02,389 --> 00:31:00,480
that nasa sent astronauts to the moon in

711
00:31:05,190 --> 00:31:02,399
the 60s and 70s

712
00:31:06,070 --> 00:31:05,200
is an historical fact but it can be

713
00:31:08,310 --> 00:31:06,080
difficult to

714
00:31:09,269 --> 00:31:08,320
argue the case if you don't know the

715
00:31:12,870 --> 00:31:09,279
many many

716
00:31:14,630 --> 00:31:12,880
details of the subject it's very easy to

717
00:31:17,669 --> 00:31:14,640
get flustered and make bad

718
00:31:21,110 --> 00:31:17,679
arguments even though in the end

719
00:31:21,909 --> 00:31:21,120
your main point is correct i had a

720
00:31:24,549 --> 00:31:21,919
choice

721
00:31:25,830 --> 00:31:24,559
between two treatments one was

722
00:31:28,630 --> 00:31:25,840
considered natural

723
00:31:31,029 --> 00:31:28,640
and the other was considered artificial

724
00:31:33,830 --> 00:31:31,039
i went for the artificial treatment

725
00:31:35,350 --> 00:31:33,840
as i know about the appeal to nature

726
00:31:37,350 --> 00:31:35,360
fallacy

727
00:31:38,549 --> 00:31:37,360
while much that is found in nature is

728
00:31:41,269 --> 00:31:38,559
toxic

729
00:31:42,630 --> 00:31:41,279
that alone is no reason to reject a

730
00:31:45,029 --> 00:31:42,640
treatment

731
00:31:46,149 --> 00:31:45,039
you need to look at the evidence behind

732
00:31:49,029 --> 00:31:46,159
any treatment

733
00:31:51,430 --> 00:31:49,039
whether from nature or from a lab to

734
00:31:54,549 --> 00:31:51,440
support your choices

735
00:31:54,950 --> 00:31:54,559
my friend who believes in evolution told

736
00:31:57,909 --> 00:31:54,960
me

737
00:31:59,509 --> 00:31:57,919
that it was all the scientists who also

738
00:32:02,549 --> 00:31:59,519
believe in evolution that

739
00:32:04,549 --> 00:32:02,559
finally convinced him but as i listen to

740
00:32:06,470 --> 00:32:04,559
the logical fallacy segment on the

741
00:32:09,509 --> 00:32:06,480
skeptic zone podcast

742
00:32:10,470 --> 00:32:09,519
i know that this is just the appeal to

743
00:32:12,630 --> 00:32:10,480
authority

744
00:32:14,630 --> 00:32:12,640
fallacy he'll have to do better than

745
00:32:16,310 --> 00:32:14,640
that to convince me

746
00:32:18,950 --> 00:32:16,320
while it's great that this person is

747
00:32:21,430 --> 00:32:18,960
learning about logical fallacies

748
00:32:23,830 --> 00:32:21,440
maybe they'll also come to understand

749
00:32:25,509 --> 00:32:23,840
that arguments and ideas can be quite

750
00:32:28,070 --> 00:32:25,519
involved and complex

751
00:32:30,310 --> 00:32:28,080
and need much more engagement than just

752
00:32:31,750 --> 00:32:30,320
pointing out logical fallacies along the

753
00:32:34,710 --> 00:32:31,760
way

754
00:32:35,430 --> 00:32:34,720
in this case the consensus of scientific

755
00:32:37,590 --> 00:32:35,440
opinion

756
00:32:41,509 --> 00:32:37,600
is being confused with an appeal to

757
00:32:46,310 --> 00:32:43,509
while it might be easy to score points

758
00:32:49,669 --> 00:32:46,320
based on your opponent's poor arguments

759
00:32:52,070 --> 00:32:49,679
try to bear in mind that in the end

760
00:32:53,509 --> 00:32:52,080
you are both hopefully trying to get to

761
00:32:56,710 --> 00:32:53,519
the truth

762
00:33:00,149 --> 00:32:56,720
if something is true and real it is

763
00:33:03,430 --> 00:33:00,159
true and real regardless of how well

764
00:33:12,230 --> 00:33:03,440
or how badly someone can argue the case

765
00:33:16,389 --> 00:33:14,710
this time we'll look at appeal to

766
00:33:19,750 --> 00:33:16,399
emotion

767
00:33:22,230 --> 00:33:19,760
also known as argument from passion

768
00:33:24,149 --> 00:33:22,240
this is when you manipulate emotions in

769
00:33:26,070 --> 00:33:24,159
order to try and win an argument

770
00:33:27,590 --> 00:33:26,080
especially in the absence of good

771
00:33:31,269 --> 00:33:27,600
evidence it is also

772
00:33:32,470 --> 00:33:31,279
a red herring that is a way of diverting

773
00:33:35,350 --> 00:33:32,480
attention away

774
00:33:36,070 --> 00:33:35,360
from the key point emotions colour our

775
00:33:38,950 --> 00:33:36,080
thinking

776
00:33:40,710 --> 00:33:38,960
it's just part of life we can keep them

777
00:33:43,190 --> 00:33:40,720
in check at times but they

778
00:33:44,230 --> 00:33:43,200
do have a habit of getting the better of

779
00:33:47,110 --> 00:33:44,240
us

780
00:33:49,029 --> 00:33:47,120
strong emotions do not always mean a

781
00:33:51,509 --> 00:33:49,039
strong argument

782
00:33:52,230 --> 00:33:51,519
i didn't know what to think when i went

783
00:33:55,190 --> 00:33:52,240
to see that

784
00:33:57,190 --> 00:33:55,200
psychic but soon she told me that my

785
00:33:58,230 --> 00:33:57,200
late mother was looking down on me and

786
00:34:01,669 --> 00:33:58,240
loved me

787
00:34:02,389 --> 00:34:01,679
i was in tears you cannot tell me it was

788
00:34:05,590 --> 00:34:02,399
fake

789
00:34:06,070 --> 00:34:05,600
i know it was my mother this situation

790
00:34:09,109 --> 00:34:06,080
is not

791
00:34:11,510 --> 00:34:09,119
uncommon when people go to see a psychic

792
00:34:13,190 --> 00:34:11,520
even wondering a stage routine in front

793
00:34:15,750 --> 00:34:13,200
of an audience

794
00:34:18,629 --> 00:34:15,760
any doubts may be suppressed as people

795
00:34:21,510 --> 00:34:18,639
experience the weight of their grief

796
00:34:24,149 --> 00:34:21,520
for many people thinking critically

797
00:34:25,510 --> 00:34:24,159
during an emotional reading is the last

798
00:34:27,909 --> 00:34:25,520
thing on their mind

799
00:34:29,349 --> 00:34:27,919
and as skeptics we should acknowledge

800
00:34:31,349 --> 00:34:29,359
this

801
00:34:33,030 --> 00:34:31,359
did you see that tv commercial for

802
00:34:36,629 --> 00:34:33,040
homeopathic treatment for

803
00:34:38,149 --> 00:34:36,639
teething the mother told of how much her

804
00:34:40,950 --> 00:34:38,159
son was suffering

805
00:34:42,629 --> 00:34:40,960
i hope everything worked out okay the

806
00:34:46,069 --> 00:34:42,639
appeal to emotion has been

807
00:34:48,629 --> 00:34:46,079
used in advertising for years and years

808
00:34:50,710 --> 00:34:48,639
diet products can play on our emotional

809
00:34:53,510 --> 00:34:50,720
insecurity of body image

810
00:34:54,149 --> 00:34:53,520
and political campaigns can play on our

811
00:34:57,270 --> 00:34:54,159
fears

812
00:34:59,589 --> 00:34:57,280
of what might happen if the other party

813
00:35:02,550 --> 00:34:59,599
wins an election

814
00:35:04,950 --> 00:35:02,560
in our example based on a real tv

815
00:35:08,150 --> 00:35:04,960
commercial shown in australia

816
00:35:09,910 --> 00:35:08,160
the story of a suffering baby pulls at

817
00:35:12,950 --> 00:35:09,920
our heartstrings

818
00:35:15,030 --> 00:35:12,960
even though the product on sale does not

819
00:35:17,510 --> 00:35:15,040
work as claimed

820
00:35:18,950 --> 00:35:17,520
i was watching all these videos online

821
00:35:21,589 --> 00:35:18,960
of parents who told

822
00:35:23,430 --> 00:35:21,599
sad and frightening stories of what

823
00:35:24,630 --> 00:35:23,440
happened to their children after getting

824
00:35:26,870 --> 00:35:24,640
vaccinated

825
00:35:29,030 --> 00:35:26,880
they really made me think whether i

826
00:35:30,630 --> 00:35:29,040
should risk taking my own baby in to get

827
00:35:32,950 --> 00:35:30,640
the jab

828
00:35:34,550 --> 00:35:32,960
like so many unsupported beliefs or

829
00:35:37,510 --> 00:35:34,560
conspiracy theories

830
00:35:40,790 --> 00:35:37,520
the anti-vaccination movement is full of

831
00:35:43,109 --> 00:35:40,800
sincere people who tell their stories

832
00:35:44,630 --> 00:35:43,119
skeptics should take into account the

833
00:35:47,190 --> 00:35:44,640
fact that people feel

834
00:35:48,150 --> 00:35:47,200
very strongly when their own children

835
00:35:50,710 --> 00:35:48,160
are involved

836
00:35:51,670 --> 00:35:50,720
and appreciate how they appeal to

837
00:36:00,870 --> 00:35:51,680
emotion

838
00:36:03,270 --> 00:36:00,880
way or the other

839
00:36:04,550 --> 00:36:03,280
ever since the first humans roamed the

840
00:36:07,589 --> 00:36:04,560
plains

841
00:36:09,589 --> 00:36:07,599
at times they add a valid and necessary

842
00:36:12,790 --> 00:36:09,599
component to an argument

843
00:36:24,630 --> 00:36:12,800
but watch out as at other times

844
00:36:32,390 --> 00:36:28,630
this time we'll look at ipsei dixit

845
00:36:35,030 --> 00:36:32,400
also known as it simply is

846
00:36:35,829 --> 00:36:35,040
this is when an opinion is given as if

847
00:36:39,109 --> 00:36:35,839
it were

848
00:36:40,870 --> 00:36:39,119
an undisputed fact without any need for

849
00:36:43,670 --> 00:36:40,880
supporting evidence

850
00:36:44,310 --> 00:36:43,680
this fallacy occurs when someone just

851
00:36:48,150 --> 00:36:44,320
assumes

852
00:36:51,030 --> 00:36:48,160
something is true or real and therefore

853
00:36:53,589 --> 00:36:51,040
cannot see the need to offer any proof

854
00:36:56,390 --> 00:36:53,599
to back up their point

855
00:36:57,270 --> 00:36:56,400
i went to see the doctor about my sore

856
00:37:00,310 --> 00:36:57,280
neck

857
00:37:01,910 --> 00:37:00,320
but a week later i'm still in pain i

858
00:37:03,510 --> 00:37:01,920
should have known better

859
00:37:05,430 --> 00:37:03,520
doctors don't know what they're doing

860
00:37:08,710 --> 00:37:05,440
and are only paid chills for big

861
00:37:11,829 --> 00:37:08,720
farmer everyone knows that

862
00:37:14,710 --> 00:37:11,839
this unsupported point of view is all

863
00:37:16,230 --> 00:37:14,720
too common among certain alternative

864
00:37:19,270 --> 00:37:16,240
medicine devotees

865
00:37:21,750 --> 00:37:19,280
and conspiracy theorists alike

866
00:37:23,750 --> 00:37:21,760
to them it's true because it conforms

867
00:37:26,870 --> 00:37:23,760
with their worldview

868
00:37:30,390 --> 00:37:26,880
the term everyone knows

869
00:37:34,150 --> 00:37:30,400
is a red flag that can indicate a poor

870
00:37:36,069 --> 00:37:34,160
argument it's true that the stars in the

871
00:37:40,150 --> 00:37:36,079
heavens can foretell the future

872
00:37:43,589 --> 00:37:40,160
and control our destiny why is it true

873
00:37:45,829 --> 00:37:43,599
it's true because it just is true

874
00:37:47,109 --> 00:37:45,839
i mean it seems obvious to me and people

875
00:37:50,150 --> 00:37:47,119
have known about this

876
00:37:53,430 --> 00:37:50,160
for thousands of years saying

877
00:37:56,790 --> 00:37:53,440
something is true because it's true

878
00:37:59,910 --> 00:37:56,800
is a classic ipsei dixit

879
00:38:03,310 --> 00:37:59,920
in this case the appeal to tradition is

880
00:38:05,190 --> 00:38:03,320
also used to seem to add weight to the

881
00:38:08,390 --> 00:38:05,200
non-argument

882
00:38:11,190 --> 00:38:08,400
i asked my medical professional why i

883
00:38:13,109 --> 00:38:11,200
should take the remedy she recommended

884
00:38:14,470 --> 00:38:13,119
she told me it was because she

885
00:38:17,589 --> 00:38:14,480
recommends it

886
00:38:20,870 --> 00:38:17,599
okay then i better take it

887
00:38:21,430 --> 00:38:20,880
as you can see in this example no real

888
00:38:24,069 --> 00:38:21,440
reason

889
00:38:25,750 --> 00:38:24,079
is given as to why the remedy should be

890
00:38:28,710 --> 00:38:25,760
taken

891
00:38:30,069 --> 00:38:28,720
oh and there's another red flag in there

892
00:38:32,550 --> 00:38:30,079
too

893
00:38:34,310 --> 00:38:32,560
watch out for the term medical

894
00:38:38,630 --> 00:38:34,320
professional

895
00:38:41,829 --> 00:38:38,640
sadly these days that term can include

896
00:38:48,630 --> 00:38:41,839
homeopaths naturopaths and

897
00:38:52,069 --> 00:38:51,750
even if an argument seems to make sense

898
00:38:58,870 --> 00:38:52,079
or

899
00:39:08,150 --> 00:38:58,880
to be

900
00:39:13,430 --> 00:39:11,109
this time we'll look at the slothful

901
00:39:16,310 --> 00:39:13,440
induction fallacy

902
00:39:19,190 --> 00:39:16,320
this is when even though there is enough

903
00:39:21,829 --> 00:39:19,200
good evidence to support a conclusion

904
00:39:22,630 --> 00:39:21,839
this evidence is rejected and replaced

905
00:39:25,589 --> 00:39:22,640
by something

906
00:39:26,829 --> 00:39:25,599
possibly unrelated but more in line with

907
00:39:30,550 --> 00:39:26,839
a particular

908
00:39:31,990 --> 00:39:30,560
worldview it can be hard even when faced

909
00:39:34,710 --> 00:39:32,000
with reality

910
00:39:37,109 --> 00:39:34,720
to reject something you sincerely

911
00:39:40,230 --> 00:39:37,119
believe to be true

912
00:39:43,510 --> 00:39:40,240
if the outcome is positive then all the

913
00:39:45,750 --> 00:39:43,520
more reason to hold on to that belief

914
00:39:47,750 --> 00:39:45,760
the water diviner we hired was able to

915
00:39:50,630 --> 00:39:47,760
find water on our farm

916
00:39:51,589 --> 00:39:50,640
now i know underground water is not

917
00:39:54,630 --> 00:39:51,599
uncommon

918
00:39:57,109 --> 00:39:54,640
but i saw him in action and i'm

919
00:40:00,230 --> 00:39:57,119
convinced of his abilities

920
00:40:02,069 --> 00:40:00,240
yes underground water in the farming

921
00:40:06,309 --> 00:40:02,079
regions of australia

922
00:40:08,710 --> 00:40:06,319
and many other countries is not uncommon

923
00:40:11,349 --> 00:40:08,720
yet some people will still credit

924
00:40:12,790 --> 00:40:11,359
something like the mythical powers of a

925
00:40:16,390 --> 00:40:12,800
water diviner

926
00:40:16,870 --> 00:40:16,400
when water is found maybe they believe

927
00:40:19,990 --> 00:40:16,880
in it

928
00:40:21,510 --> 00:40:20,000
to begin with maybe they are impressed

929
00:40:24,309 --> 00:40:21,520
by the theatrics

930
00:40:26,150 --> 00:40:24,319
or maybe they happen to be unlucky when

931
00:40:29,510 --> 00:40:26,160
sinking a well in the past

932
00:40:29,910 --> 00:40:29,520
when not using a diviner i'm pleased to

933
00:40:32,309 --> 00:40:29,920
say

934
00:40:34,550 --> 00:40:32,319
that my cancer is in remission and the

935
00:40:36,950 --> 00:40:34,560
prognosis is looking good

936
00:40:37,990 --> 00:40:36,960
thank goodness i followed the natural

937
00:40:40,550 --> 00:40:38,000
healer's advice

938
00:40:42,950 --> 00:40:40,560
and stopped eating red colored food

939
00:40:44,870 --> 00:40:42,960
while undergoing chemotherapy

940
00:40:46,230 --> 00:40:44,880
stories like this are well known to

941
00:40:48,950 --> 00:40:46,240
skeptics

942
00:40:50,230 --> 00:40:48,960
even though people sometimes very

943
00:40:52,870 --> 00:40:50,240
reluctantly

944
00:40:55,190 --> 00:40:52,880
will submit to chemotherapy and other

945
00:40:58,069 --> 00:40:55,200
science-based interventions

946
00:40:59,589 --> 00:40:58,079
they will still credit any improvement

947
00:41:02,069 --> 00:40:59,599
to whatever

948
00:41:04,390 --> 00:41:02,079
unproven alternative treatment they are

949
00:41:06,710 --> 00:41:04,400
taking at the same time

950
00:41:08,470 --> 00:41:06,720
we should not expect people who are in

951
00:41:12,550 --> 00:41:08,480
fear of their lives

952
00:41:13,270 --> 00:41:12,560
to always think rationally i saw a ufo

953
00:41:15,510 --> 00:41:13,280
last week

954
00:41:17,990 --> 00:41:15,520
i'm i'm sure it was an alien spaceship

955
00:41:18,390 --> 00:41:18,000
it was very bright in the evening sky

956
00:41:20,710 --> 00:41:18,400
and

957
00:41:22,309 --> 00:41:20,720
seemed to hover for some time even

958
00:41:24,150 --> 00:41:22,319
though my skeptical friend

959
00:41:26,069 --> 00:41:24,160
said it was in the same location in the

960
00:41:28,309 --> 00:41:26,079
sky as the planet venus

961
00:41:30,150 --> 00:41:28,319
it makes more sense to me that it was a

962
00:41:32,230 --> 00:41:30,160
real ufo

963
00:41:33,190 --> 00:41:32,240
here we have a case of an object in the

964
00:41:36,390 --> 00:41:33,200
sky with

965
00:41:39,430 --> 00:41:36,400
two differing explanations

966
00:41:43,109 --> 00:41:39,440
venus is often mistaken for aircraft

967
00:41:44,230 --> 00:41:43,119
even ufos and we know its location

968
00:41:47,349 --> 00:41:44,240
exactly at

969
00:41:50,309 --> 00:41:47,359
any given time yet

970
00:41:51,349 --> 00:41:50,319
for some it's far more exciting to

971
00:41:54,069 --> 00:41:51,359
conclude that

972
00:41:58,390 --> 00:41:54,079
aliens are the real cause of the strange

973
00:42:04,550 --> 00:42:01,349
the slothful induction fallacy is a way

974
00:42:06,950 --> 00:42:04,560
for people to preserve their beliefs

975
00:42:09,430 --> 00:42:06,960
even though there is better evidence for

976
00:42:12,390 --> 00:42:09,440
them to reject those beliefs

977
00:42:13,750 --> 00:42:12,400
it's far easier hence the use of the

978
00:42:16,790 --> 00:42:13,760
word slothful

979
00:42:23,990 --> 00:42:16,800
to just hold on to what you think is

980
00:42:32,309 --> 00:42:28,790
this time we'll look at unfalsifiability

981
00:42:34,150 --> 00:42:32,319
also known as untestability this is when

982
00:42:37,430 --> 00:42:34,160
you make a claim that cannot

983
00:42:41,190 --> 00:42:37,440
be shown or proved to be incorrect

984
00:42:43,910 --> 00:42:41,200
or even correct via testing

985
00:42:44,870 --> 00:42:43,920
skeptics have seen this fallacy many

986
00:42:47,990 --> 00:42:44,880
times

987
00:42:50,150 --> 00:42:48,000
and for many differing claims believers

988
00:42:53,430 --> 00:42:50,160
like to think that if skeptics or

989
00:42:56,710 --> 00:42:53,440
even science cannot disprove a claim

990
00:42:57,750 --> 00:42:56,720
it therefore must be true i know that

991
00:43:00,790 --> 00:42:57,760
water dividing

992
00:43:03,990 --> 00:43:00,800
always works out on the farm but only

993
00:43:06,550 --> 00:43:04,000
if skeptics are kept away as they have

994
00:43:07,910 --> 00:43:06,560
negative energy that interferes with

995
00:43:11,109 --> 00:43:07,920
divining

996
00:43:13,030 --> 00:43:11,119
here we have a situation based on what

997
00:43:15,270 --> 00:43:13,040
some water diviners have said to

998
00:43:17,670 --> 00:43:15,280
skeptics over the years

999
00:43:20,230 --> 00:43:17,680
the diviner in this case has made it

1000
00:43:21,910 --> 00:43:20,240
impossible for a real investigation of

1001
00:43:24,470 --> 00:43:21,920
his claims

1002
00:43:27,349 --> 00:43:24,480
those claims therefore can never be

1003
00:43:30,390 --> 00:43:27,359
shown to fail in a test

1004
00:43:31,430 --> 00:43:30,400
even when diviners are tested they will

1005
00:43:34,390 --> 00:43:31,440
come up with

1006
00:43:37,030 --> 00:43:34,400
what is to them a reasonable excuse to

1007
00:43:40,710 --> 00:43:37,040
justify their failure

1008
00:43:41,670 --> 00:43:40,720
that excuse is never that divining

1009
00:43:45,589 --> 00:43:41,680
itself

1010
00:43:48,870 --> 00:43:45,599
does not work i tried to test

1011
00:43:49,750 --> 00:43:48,880
a tarot card reader she chose a card at

1012
00:43:52,150 --> 00:43:49,760
random

1013
00:43:54,390 --> 00:43:52,160
and told me a story about it and asked

1014
00:43:57,829 --> 00:43:54,400
me if i could relate to it

1015
00:43:59,190 --> 00:43:57,839
when i said no she turned the card

1016
00:44:01,270 --> 00:43:59,200
upside down

1017
00:44:02,790 --> 00:44:01,280
and told me the opposite of what she

1018
00:44:06,390 --> 00:44:02,800
said before

1019
00:44:08,550 --> 00:44:06,400
well what do you know some of it fit me

1020
00:44:10,550 --> 00:44:08,560
this example is based on a real

1021
00:44:13,670 --> 00:44:10,560
conversation between a skeptic

1022
00:44:16,470 --> 00:44:13,680
and tarot card reader

1023
00:44:17,910 --> 00:44:16,480
here we see that no matter what was said

1024
00:44:21,750 --> 00:44:17,920
in the reading

1025
00:44:24,710 --> 00:44:21,760
with a bit of post hoc rationalization

1026
00:44:26,870 --> 00:44:24,720
it can be claimed that the tarot cards

1027
00:44:30,550 --> 00:44:26,880
are never wrong

1028
00:44:33,270 --> 00:44:30,560
i have a dragon living in my garage

1029
00:44:33,910 --> 00:44:33,280
it's invisible so you cannot see it it

1030
00:44:36,950 --> 00:44:33,920
breathes

1031
00:44:38,870 --> 00:44:36,960
fire but the fire is also heatless so

1032
00:44:41,589 --> 00:44:38,880
you cannot detect it

1033
00:44:42,550 --> 00:44:41,599
a dragon floats in the air so you cannot

1034
00:44:45,829 --> 00:44:42,560
weigh it

1035
00:44:49,030 --> 00:44:45,839
but take my word for it the dragon

1036
00:44:49,349 --> 00:44:49,040
is real here we have a classic example

1037
00:44:53,030 --> 00:44:49,359
from

1038
00:44:54,710 --> 00:44:53,040
carl sagan in his book the demon haunted

1039
00:44:57,670 --> 00:44:54,720
world

1040
00:45:01,109 --> 00:44:57,680
no matter what test you come up with to

1041
00:45:04,069 --> 00:45:01,119
find out if the dragon is real or not

1042
00:45:07,190 --> 00:45:04,079
there will always be some reason as to

1043
00:45:10,630 --> 00:45:07,200
why the test is impossible

1044
00:45:10,950 --> 00:45:10,640
therefore you can never show the dragon

1045
00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:10,960
is

1046
00:45:15,069 --> 00:45:13,570
not there

1047
00:45:17,670 --> 00:45:15,079
[Music]

1048
00:45:19,829 --> 00:45:17,680
falsifiability is a cornerstone of the

1049
00:45:22,950 --> 00:45:19,839
scientific method

1050
00:45:25,829 --> 00:45:22,960
any claim put forward that cannot be

1051
00:45:27,190 --> 00:45:25,839
at least in theory be shown to be

1052
00:45:30,829 --> 00:45:27,200
incorrect

1053
00:45:38,630 --> 00:45:30,839
is unscientific and deserves your

1054
00:45:43,109 --> 00:45:41,349
this time we'll look at affirming the

1055
00:45:45,430 --> 00:45:43,119
consequent

1056
00:45:46,309 --> 00:45:45,440
this is when you assume or conclude a

1057
00:45:48,710 --> 00:45:46,319
cause

1058
00:45:49,589 --> 00:45:48,720
for a phenomenon is based on the

1059
00:45:51,990 --> 00:45:49,599
phenomenon

1060
00:45:53,109 --> 00:45:52,000
itself without taking other

1061
00:45:55,670 --> 00:45:53,119
possibilities

1062
00:45:56,390 --> 00:45:55,680
into account you can think of this

1063
00:45:59,990 --> 00:45:56,400
fallacy

1064
00:46:03,670 --> 00:46:00,000
along these lines if x happens

1065
00:46:08,309 --> 00:46:03,680
then y is the result since y

1066
00:46:10,630 --> 00:46:08,319
has happened then the cause must be x

1067
00:46:12,230 --> 00:46:10,640
maybe our example will make this a

1068
00:46:15,349 --> 00:46:12,240
little more clear

1069
00:46:17,270 --> 00:46:15,359
i went to see a natural healer as my

1070
00:46:19,670 --> 00:46:17,280
cold was not getting better

1071
00:46:20,950 --> 00:46:19,680
she told me she'd seen this sort of

1072
00:46:22,790 --> 00:46:20,960
thing before

1073
00:46:24,710 --> 00:46:22,800
when another one of her patients had

1074
00:46:26,630 --> 00:46:24,720
side effects from prescription

1075
00:46:29,030 --> 00:46:26,640
medication

1076
00:46:29,829 --> 00:46:29,040
so now i know to steer clear of that

1077
00:46:32,950 --> 00:46:29,839
medication

1078
00:46:33,670 --> 00:46:32,960
in the future a stubborn cold may be

1079
00:46:36,870 --> 00:46:33,680
caused by

1080
00:46:37,430 --> 00:46:36,880
many things ranging from picking up a

1081
00:46:40,150 --> 00:46:37,440
second

1082
00:46:41,349 --> 00:46:40,160
cold even as you are recovering from the

1083
00:46:44,230 --> 00:46:41,359
first

1084
00:46:44,470 --> 00:46:44,240
confusing the cold symptoms with that of

1085
00:46:47,829 --> 00:46:44,480
an

1086
00:46:49,430 --> 00:46:47,839
allergy possible side effects from

1087
00:46:52,630 --> 00:46:49,440
medication

1088
00:46:55,190 --> 00:46:52,640
or even the cold virus itself

1089
00:46:55,829 --> 00:46:55,200
being more resistant than normal to your

1090
00:46:59,910 --> 00:46:55,839
body's

1091
00:47:02,870 --> 00:46:59,920
natural defenses in our example

1092
00:47:05,030 --> 00:47:02,880
there is no good reason to conclude that

1093
00:47:08,870 --> 00:47:05,040
the prescription medication

1094
00:47:09,430 --> 00:47:08,880
must be the cause my natural healer told

1095
00:47:15,670 --> 00:47:09,440
me

1096
00:47:16,710 --> 00:47:15,680
cold would get better well my cold did

1097
00:47:20,150 --> 00:47:16,720
get better

1098
00:47:23,910 --> 00:47:20,160
therefore the homeopathic remedy worked

1099
00:47:25,030 --> 00:47:23,920
another example for our man with a cold

1100
00:47:28,150 --> 00:47:25,040
this time

1101
00:47:29,670 --> 00:47:28,160
he beat the cold but does that mean the

1102
00:47:32,790 --> 00:47:29,680
homeopathic remedy

1103
00:47:36,950 --> 00:47:32,800
really did work we can say

1104
00:47:39,750 --> 00:47:36,960
that almost certainly it did not

1105
00:47:42,790 --> 00:47:39,760
so therefore there must be another

1106
00:47:45,910 --> 00:47:42,800
reason the cold went away

1107
00:47:47,670 --> 00:47:45,920
but maybe we can see why he mistakenly

1108
00:47:50,549 --> 00:47:47,680
credits homeopathy

1109
00:47:52,150 --> 00:47:50,559
as he trusts what the natural healer

1110
00:47:54,390 --> 00:47:52,160
tells him

1111
00:47:55,990 --> 00:47:54,400
we've covered the appeal to authority

1112
00:47:59,109 --> 00:47:56,000
before

1113
00:48:02,230 --> 00:47:59,119
it's well known that sasquatch leaves

1114
00:48:05,030 --> 00:48:02,240
giant footprints behind on a recent

1115
00:48:08,230 --> 00:48:05,040
expedition i found some giant footprints

1116
00:48:11,030 --> 00:48:08,240
therefore i know sasquatch is real as

1117
00:48:11,829 --> 00:48:11,040
intriguing as the idea of sasquatch or

1118
00:48:15,990 --> 00:48:11,839
bigfoot

1119
00:48:16,470 --> 00:48:16,000
is and despite many giant footprints

1120
00:48:20,069 --> 00:48:16,480
being

1121
00:48:23,109 --> 00:48:20,079
found over the years the reality of such

1122
00:48:27,829 --> 00:48:23,119
a creature is still in great doubt

1123
00:48:30,790 --> 00:48:27,839
and that is after decades of searching

1124
00:48:31,109 --> 00:48:30,800
it seems then that those plaster casts

1125
00:48:34,309 --> 00:48:31,119
of

1126
00:48:37,270 --> 00:48:34,319
giant footprints we've seen mostly from

1127
00:48:39,750 --> 00:48:37,280
the 1970s and 80s

1128
00:48:41,589 --> 00:48:39,760
could well have been produced by another

1129
00:48:44,790 --> 00:48:41,599
and very clever

1130
00:48:49,349 --> 00:48:44,800
bipedal animal who likes falling people

1131
00:48:51,670 --> 00:48:49,359
with pranks

1132
00:48:52,630 --> 00:48:51,680
sometimes it just seems logical to

1133
00:48:56,150 --> 00:48:52,640
conclude

1134
00:48:57,270 --> 00:48:56,160
one thing leads to another sometimes it

1135
00:49:00,390 --> 00:48:57,280
does

1136
00:49:02,870 --> 00:49:00,400
but sometimes the original cause

1137
00:49:04,120 --> 00:49:02,880
of an event maybe something else

1138
00:49:10,069 --> 00:49:04,130
entirely

1139
00:49:15,910 --> 00:49:14,230
this time we'll look at red herring

1140
00:49:17,829 --> 00:49:15,920
this is when someone gives you

1141
00:49:21,030 --> 00:49:17,839
irrelevant information

1142
00:49:22,549 --> 00:49:21,040
in an attempt to distract you from the

1143
00:49:25,990 --> 00:49:22,559
topic at hand

1144
00:49:27,109 --> 00:49:26,000
often to avoid a question or shift the

1145
00:49:30,150 --> 00:49:27,119
discussion

1146
00:49:31,109 --> 00:49:30,160
in a new direction red herrings are used

1147
00:49:34,309 --> 00:49:31,119
to avoid

1148
00:49:37,589 --> 00:49:34,319
talking about a subject especially if

1149
00:49:39,750 --> 00:49:37,599
you think you might lose an argument

1150
00:49:41,270 --> 00:49:39,760
they might seem to be related to the

1151
00:49:44,309 --> 00:49:41,280
topic at hand

1152
00:49:46,790 --> 00:49:44,319
but can end up taking you far

1153
00:49:48,710 --> 00:49:46,800
from where you wanted to be three

1154
00:49:50,549 --> 00:49:48,720
skeptics tested a

1155
00:49:51,910 --> 00:49:50,559
psychic who claimed to be able to talk

1156
00:49:54,390 --> 00:49:51,920
to the dead

1157
00:49:55,190 --> 00:49:54,400
when it seemed apparent she could not do

1158
00:49:58,069 --> 00:49:55,200
so

1159
00:50:00,150 --> 00:49:58,079
she complained that scientific testing

1160
00:50:03,030 --> 00:50:00,160
was just another belief system

1161
00:50:04,470 --> 00:50:03,040
and was not able to test what she does

1162
00:50:06,230 --> 00:50:04,480
the test was stopped

1163
00:50:08,150 --> 00:50:06,240
and the rest of the time was spent

1164
00:50:11,510 --> 00:50:08,160
trying to explain to her

1165
00:50:11,750 --> 00:50:11,520
how the scientific method works this is

1166
00:50:14,230 --> 00:50:11,760
an

1167
00:50:15,230 --> 00:50:14,240
example of something that is well known

1168
00:50:18,710 --> 00:50:15,240
to skeptical

1169
00:50:21,829 --> 00:50:18,720
investigators when someone claiming

1170
00:50:22,870 --> 00:50:21,839
psychic powers seems to be failing in a

1171
00:50:25,750 --> 00:50:22,880
test

1172
00:50:27,109 --> 00:50:25,760
they may well stop and go off on a

1173
00:50:29,990 --> 00:50:27,119
tangent

1174
00:50:32,390 --> 00:50:30,000
in this case the red herring was to

1175
00:50:35,589 --> 00:50:32,400
engage the skeptics in a talk about

1176
00:50:38,710 --> 00:50:35,599
how science works so

1177
00:50:40,710 --> 00:50:38,720
you think homeopathy doesn't work what

1178
00:50:42,790 --> 00:50:40,720
about all the western medicine that is

1179
00:50:45,270 --> 00:50:42,800
recalled every year

1180
00:50:46,309 --> 00:50:45,280
whatever the case is with science-based

1181
00:50:51,430 --> 00:50:46,319
medicine

1182
00:50:54,790 --> 00:50:51,440
alternative medical proponents

1183
00:50:56,710 --> 00:50:54,800
it really has no bearing on the validity

1184
00:50:59,109 --> 00:50:56,720
of homeopathy

1185
00:51:00,870 --> 00:50:59,119
but before you know it you are talking

1186
00:51:04,710 --> 00:51:00,880
about other things

1187
00:51:06,790 --> 00:51:04,720
rather than homeopathy the astrologist

1188
00:51:08,549 --> 00:51:06,800
said he could predict the outcome of the

1189
00:51:11,030 --> 00:51:08,559
next election

1190
00:51:11,990 --> 00:51:11,040
when that didn't come to pass he

1191
00:51:14,069 --> 00:51:12,000
explained how

1192
00:51:16,549 --> 00:51:14,079
hard he'd been working on a new form of

1193
00:51:19,589 --> 00:51:16,559
astrology that took more stars

1194
00:51:21,829 --> 00:51:19,599
into consideration maybe this new

1195
00:51:25,030 --> 00:51:21,839
astrology is very interesting and

1196
00:51:27,510 --> 00:51:25,040
something to talk about but whether that

1197
00:51:30,790 --> 00:51:27,520
is the new astrology itself

1198
00:51:34,069 --> 00:51:30,800
or the hard work put into it neither

1199
00:51:39,190 --> 00:51:34,079
has anything to do with the past failure

1200
00:51:44,710 --> 00:51:41,270
chasing a red herring means you have

1201
00:51:47,190 --> 00:51:44,720
been taken away from the point in hand

1202
00:51:48,390 --> 00:51:47,200
before you know it the original topic

1203
00:51:51,030 --> 00:51:48,400
has been lost

1204
00:51:52,460 --> 00:51:51,040
and you might not be able to return to

1205
00:51:58,870 --> 00:51:52,470
it

1206
00:52:02,829 --> 00:52:01,190
this time we'll look at the perfect

1207
00:52:09,750 --> 00:52:02,839
solution

1208
00:52:12,790 --> 00:52:09,760
is an all or nothing way of thinking

1209
00:52:15,190 --> 00:52:12,800
unless the outcome is 100 perfect

1210
00:52:16,630 --> 00:52:15,200
the baby may will end up being thrown

1211
00:52:19,030 --> 00:52:16,640
out with the bathwater

1212
00:52:21,589 --> 00:52:19,040
in other words the idea is being

1213
00:52:23,589 --> 00:52:21,599
rejected altogether

1214
00:52:24,790 --> 00:52:23,599
this can be a pitfall when making

1215
00:52:27,190 --> 00:52:24,800
decisions

1216
00:52:29,990 --> 00:52:27,200
especially if the right thing to do

1217
00:52:32,790 --> 00:52:30,000
doesn't particularly appeal to us

1218
00:52:33,829 --> 00:52:32,800
and we are looking for ways to justify

1219
00:52:37,190 --> 00:52:33,839
our inaction

1220
00:52:39,589 --> 00:52:37,200
to ourselves and others i'm not going to

1221
00:52:42,790 --> 00:52:39,599
get vaccinated for covert 19

1222
00:52:44,390 --> 00:52:42,800
the vaccination is only 95 effective and

1223
00:52:46,230 --> 00:52:44,400
you need two doses

1224
00:52:47,829 --> 00:52:46,240
look at all those health care workers

1225
00:52:51,030 --> 00:52:47,839
who still caught it

1226
00:52:53,910 --> 00:52:51,040
the 95 efficacy rate of

1227
00:52:54,950 --> 00:52:53,920
some of the covert 19 vaccines is

1228
00:52:57,990 --> 00:52:54,960
actually very

1229
00:52:59,190 --> 00:52:58,000
high the fact that a person may fall

1230
00:53:02,150 --> 00:52:59,200
into the 5

1231
00:53:03,190 --> 00:53:02,160
category and not achieve adequate

1232
00:53:06,390 --> 00:53:03,200
protection

1233
00:53:08,309 --> 00:53:06,400
is no reason to deem the vaccine not

1234
00:53:10,230 --> 00:53:08,319
worth having

1235
00:53:11,430 --> 00:53:10,240
the health care workers who caught

1236
00:53:14,390 --> 00:53:11,440
covert 19

1237
00:53:16,630 --> 00:53:14,400
after their first inoculation had yet to

1238
00:53:19,190 --> 00:53:16,640
receive their second dose

1239
00:53:21,270 --> 00:53:19,200
and it may also be possible that they

1240
00:53:24,549 --> 00:53:21,280
were already infected

1241
00:53:27,190 --> 00:53:24,559
that small number of cases is also

1242
00:53:29,270 --> 00:53:27,200
no reason to dismiss the vaccine

1243
00:53:32,390 --> 00:53:29,280
outright

1244
00:53:35,190 --> 00:53:32,400
also protesting that a vaccine is

1245
00:53:35,990 --> 00:53:35,200
not a hundred percent effective is a

1246
00:53:38,710 --> 00:53:36,000
classic

1247
00:53:40,470 --> 00:53:38,720
argument of the anti-vaccination

1248
00:53:43,990 --> 00:53:40,480
movement

1249
00:53:44,870 --> 00:53:44,000
this mask is uncomfortable and not 100

1250
00:53:47,829 --> 00:53:44,880
effective in

1251
00:53:50,230 --> 00:53:47,839
reducing the spread of covert 19. i'm

1252
00:53:53,270 --> 00:53:50,240
not going to bother wearing it

1253
00:53:55,430 --> 00:53:53,280
despite not being 100 effective ma

1254
00:53:56,470 --> 00:53:55,440
squaring is advised by medical

1255
00:53:59,589 --> 00:53:56,480
specialists

1256
00:54:02,069 --> 00:53:59,599
to inhibit the aerosol spray responsible

1257
00:54:05,829 --> 00:54:02,079
for the spread of the virus

1258
00:54:08,549 --> 00:54:05,839
it isn't an all or nothing scenario

1259
00:54:12,870 --> 00:54:08,559
all reduction in transmission helps to

1260
00:54:16,549 --> 00:54:15,270
how am i going to find an hour a day to

1261
00:54:19,589 --> 00:54:16,559
exercise

1262
00:54:21,030 --> 00:54:19,599
i'm just too busy and tired there's no

1263
00:54:24,549 --> 00:54:21,040
point in bothering for just

1264
00:54:27,190 --> 00:54:24,559
15 to 20 minutes the recommended amount

1265
00:54:28,710 --> 00:54:27,200
of exercise is approximately one hour

1266
00:54:31,750 --> 00:54:28,720
per day

1267
00:54:34,870 --> 00:54:31,760
however when that isn't possible

1268
00:54:35,430 --> 00:54:34,880
it's easy to convince ourselves not to

1269
00:54:39,750 --> 00:54:35,440
make an

1270
00:54:42,150 --> 00:54:39,760
effort and give up on exercising

1271
00:54:44,069 --> 00:54:42,160
while we may not be able to achieve the

1272
00:54:46,870 --> 00:54:44,079
maximum benefits

1273
00:54:49,270 --> 00:54:46,880
exercising for a shorter time will still

1274
00:54:52,309 --> 00:54:49,280
be of benefit to our health

1275
00:54:58,230 --> 00:54:52,319
especially in contrast to the scenario

1276
00:55:02,230 --> 00:55:00,630
while we often want to make excuses to

1277
00:55:05,430 --> 00:55:02,240
ourselves to avoid

1278
00:55:06,630 --> 00:55:05,440
doing something we don't like or if we

1279
00:55:08,870 --> 00:55:06,640
want to bolster an

1280
00:55:11,910 --> 00:55:08,880
argument that really doesn't have the

1281
00:55:15,270 --> 00:55:11,920
weight of evidence on our side

1282
00:55:16,470 --> 00:55:15,280
it can be tempting to succumb to wanting

1283
00:55:20,630 --> 00:55:16,480
a solution

1284
00:55:24,150 --> 00:55:20,640
or situation to be perfect in every way

1285
00:55:25,670 --> 00:55:24,160
however in reality we should weigh up

1286
00:55:28,069 --> 00:55:25,680
the pros and cons

1287
00:55:38,230 --> 00:55:28,079
and make better judgments that are not

1288
00:55:42,549 --> 00:55:40,870
this time we'll look at the fallacy of

1289
00:55:45,430 --> 00:55:42,559
composition

1290
00:55:47,750 --> 00:55:45,440
this fallacy is about transferring or

1291
00:55:49,829 --> 00:55:47,760
projecting the properties shared by a

1292
00:55:53,270 --> 00:55:49,839
set of individual components

1293
00:55:53,670 --> 00:55:53,280
to the whole group or product as if they

1294
00:55:56,230 --> 00:55:53,680
were

1295
00:55:57,349 --> 00:55:56,240
one and the same the fallacy of

1296
00:55:59,750 --> 00:55:57,359
composition

1297
00:56:03,030 --> 00:55:59,760
can appear to be quite similar to the

1298
00:56:05,950 --> 00:56:03,040
fallacy of hasty generalization

1299
00:56:07,349 --> 00:56:05,960
however the latter usually means

1300
00:56:10,789 --> 00:56:07,359
extrapolating from

1301
00:56:13,349 --> 00:56:10,799
only a small or anomalous sample

1302
00:56:14,789 --> 00:56:13,359
to a larger one and drawing the wrong

1303
00:56:17,910 --> 00:56:14,799
conclusion

1304
00:56:20,390 --> 00:56:17,920
based on insufficient evidence it's

1305
00:56:21,190 --> 00:56:20,400
also the opposite of the fallacy of

1306
00:56:23,829 --> 00:56:21,200
division

1307
00:56:24,549 --> 00:56:23,839
which assumes that what is true for the

1308
00:56:27,670 --> 00:56:24,559
whole

1309
00:56:28,950 --> 00:56:27,680
is also true for some or all of its

1310
00:56:31,270 --> 00:56:28,960
parts

1311
00:56:32,870 --> 00:56:31,280
i don't believe humans have caused

1312
00:56:35,829 --> 00:56:32,880
global warming

1313
00:56:36,870 --> 00:56:35,839
those so-called climate scientists

1314
00:56:39,670 --> 00:56:36,880
commit the

1315
00:56:40,549 --> 00:56:39,680
composition fallacy in their research

1316
00:56:43,270 --> 00:56:40,559
they

1317
00:56:43,990 --> 00:56:43,280
aggregate temperature anomalies from

1318
00:56:46,309 --> 00:56:44,000
specific

1319
00:56:47,829 --> 00:56:46,319
regions then apply that to the whole

1320
00:56:49,910 --> 00:56:47,839
planet to say

1321
00:56:51,750 --> 00:56:49,920
that it's warming you have to look at

1322
00:56:55,270 --> 00:56:51,760
each individual region

1323
00:56:58,069 --> 00:56:55,280
separately if climate change scientists

1324
00:56:59,109 --> 00:56:58,079
simply aggregated regional temperature

1325
00:57:02,230 --> 00:56:59,119
anomalies and

1326
00:57:04,789 --> 00:57:02,240
called it global warming it might be

1327
00:57:06,950 --> 00:57:04,799
arguable that they are committing the

1328
00:57:10,390 --> 00:57:06,960
composition fallacy

1329
00:57:12,470 --> 00:57:10,400
however it is valid to extrapolate in

1330
00:57:16,710 --> 00:57:12,480
this way in some cases

1331
00:57:17,349 --> 00:57:16,720
and not in others the difficulty lies in

1332
00:57:20,470 --> 00:57:17,359
knowing

1333
00:57:22,309 --> 00:57:20,480
which side is correct in any given

1334
00:57:24,789 --> 00:57:22,319
scenario

1335
00:57:25,510 --> 00:57:24,799
in this case aside from charting

1336
00:57:28,150 --> 00:57:25,520
averages

1337
00:57:30,630 --> 00:57:28,160
and highlighting general trends

1338
00:57:32,630 --> 00:57:30,640
additional supporting evidence for the

1339
00:57:35,829 --> 00:57:32,640
theory of global warming

1340
00:57:36,870 --> 00:57:35,839
comes into play and temperature data is

1341
00:57:39,349 --> 00:57:36,880
consistent

1342
00:57:40,710 --> 00:57:39,359
with the data from multiple lines of

1343
00:57:43,990 --> 00:57:40,720
inquiry

1344
00:57:44,870 --> 00:57:44,000
including the warming oceans melting ice

1345
00:57:47,910 --> 00:57:44,880
sheets

1346
00:57:49,349 --> 00:57:47,920
and retreating glaciers just to name a

1347
00:57:51,910 --> 00:57:49,359
few

1348
00:57:52,549 --> 00:57:51,920
one of the reasons i believe that a

1349
00:57:55,910 --> 00:57:52,559
higher

1350
00:57:56,710 --> 00:57:55,920
power exists is because like many other

1351
00:58:00,309 --> 00:57:56,720
people

1352
00:58:03,190 --> 00:58:00,319
i feel a sense of purpose for being here

1353
00:58:05,190 --> 00:58:03,200
this must also mean that human beings

1354
00:58:08,470 --> 00:58:05,200
are placed here on earth

1355
00:58:11,589 --> 00:58:08,480
for a purpose this is a fallacy that we

1356
00:58:14,230 --> 00:58:11,599
sometimes see coming from theists

1357
00:58:15,349 --> 00:58:14,240
it's true that people often feel a sense

1358
00:58:19,190 --> 00:58:15,359
of purpose

1359
00:58:22,309 --> 00:58:19,200
or have pet causes however

1360
00:58:25,910 --> 00:58:22,319
just because any number of individuals

1361
00:58:28,630 --> 00:58:25,920
may feel a sense of purpose this notion

1362
00:58:29,349 --> 00:58:28,640
cannot be transferred to humanity as a

1363
00:58:32,069 --> 00:58:29,359
whole

1364
00:58:35,109 --> 00:58:32,079
to argue that we have some kind of

1365
00:58:37,510 --> 00:58:35,119
collective purpose for being here

1366
00:58:39,190 --> 00:58:37,520
i've been doing some research online and

1367
00:58:41,670 --> 00:58:39,200
have decided to give up

1368
00:58:42,710 --> 00:58:41,680
eating foods that have names i can't

1369
00:58:46,549 --> 00:58:42,720
pronounce

1370
00:58:49,589 --> 00:58:46,559
and i'm also going to avoid chemicals

1371
00:58:51,349 --> 00:58:49,599
first to go is salt did you know it

1372
00:58:54,630 --> 00:58:51,359
contains chlorine

1373
00:58:55,190 --> 00:58:54,640
that's toxic to humans it's certainly

1374
00:58:58,309 --> 00:58:55,200
true

1375
00:58:58,950 --> 00:58:58,319
that sodium and chlorine are harmful to

1376
00:59:01,030 --> 00:58:58,960
humans

1377
00:59:02,710 --> 00:59:01,040
at certain levels when ingested

1378
00:59:05,430 --> 00:59:02,720
separately

1379
00:59:07,430 --> 00:59:05,440
however the chemical reaction that

1380
00:59:10,710 --> 00:59:07,440
occurs when they are combined

1381
00:59:13,750 --> 00:59:10,720
creates table salt which is not toxic

1382
00:59:15,750 --> 00:59:13,760
and something we eat every day

1383
00:59:17,990 --> 00:59:15,760
simply considering the properties of

1384
00:59:20,950 --> 00:59:18,000
individual chemical components

1385
00:59:23,510 --> 00:59:20,960
does not mean that identical properties

1386
00:59:25,910 --> 00:59:23,520
apply to the whole product

1387
00:59:26,870 --> 00:59:25,920
western medical practitioners are so

1388
00:59:29,349 --> 00:59:26,880
reductionist

1389
00:59:30,150 --> 00:59:29,359
i'm going to see a naturopath who will

1390
00:59:33,510 --> 00:59:30,160
treat me

1391
00:59:34,710 --> 00:59:33,520
as a whole person not just focus on my

1392
00:59:36,549 --> 00:59:34,720
liver disease

1393
00:59:39,030 --> 00:59:36,559
organs in the body don't function in

1394
00:59:40,789 --> 00:59:39,040
isolation they are part of a system that

1395
00:59:44,470 --> 00:59:40,799
includes the mind

1396
00:59:47,589 --> 00:59:44,480
body and spirit diseases do

1397
00:59:49,990 --> 00:59:47,599
not necessarily occur in isolation

1398
00:59:51,270 --> 00:59:50,000
and the majority of doctors are going to

1399
00:59:54,230 --> 00:59:51,280
look at lifestyle

1400
00:59:56,140 --> 00:59:54,240
and other factors that may contribute to

1401
00:59:57,270 --> 00:59:56,150
an illness or chronic condition

1402
01:00:00,069 --> 00:59:57,280
[Music]

1403
01:00:00,950 --> 01:00:00,079
however practitioners of western

1404
01:00:03,270 --> 01:00:00,960
medicine

1405
01:00:04,789 --> 01:00:03,280
do not transfer the properties of a

1406
01:00:07,910 --> 01:00:04,799
disease in a specific

1407
01:00:10,230 --> 01:00:07,920
organ to the body as a whole as if they

1408
01:00:12,549 --> 01:00:10,240
were essentially the same thing

1409
01:00:14,150 --> 01:00:12,559
as in the case of the systems approach

1410
01:00:16,260 --> 01:00:14,160
of the holistic health

1411
01:00:19,430 --> 01:00:16,270
practitioners

1412
01:00:23,109 --> 01:00:21,990
the fallacy of composition occurs when

1413
01:00:25,750 --> 01:00:23,119
we believe

1414
01:00:28,150 --> 01:00:25,760
that what is true for individual parts

1415
01:00:31,349 --> 01:00:28,160
is true for the whole

1416
01:00:33,510 --> 01:00:31,359
think of it this way sometimes

1417
01:00:34,870 --> 01:00:33,520
what is good for the individual is good

1418
01:00:38,630 --> 01:00:34,880
for the group

1419
01:00:41,430 --> 01:00:38,640
but at other times it is not

1420
01:00:42,549 --> 01:00:41,440
therefore we have to be careful about

1421
01:00:45,990 --> 01:00:42,559
determining

1422
01:00:46,950 --> 01:00:46,000
when this is fallacious thinking or when

1423
01:00:49,270 --> 01:00:46,960
it is true

1424
01:00:59,349 --> 01:00:49,280
and may need to seek other kinds of

1425
01:01:04,470 --> 01:01:02,390
this time we'll look at the appeal to

1426
01:01:08,069 --> 01:01:04,480
common sense

1427
01:01:11,589 --> 01:01:08,079
version

1428
01:01:14,710 --> 01:01:11,599
of the alleged certainty

1429
01:01:15,109 --> 01:01:14,720
it occurs when somebody simply asserts

1430
01:01:18,230 --> 01:01:15,119
their

1431
01:01:21,349 --> 01:01:18,240
conclusion as an obvious fact however

1432
01:01:23,829 --> 01:01:21,359
it may not necessarily be so

1433
01:01:24,870 --> 01:01:23,839
when a person appeals to our common

1434
01:01:27,349 --> 01:01:24,880
sense

1435
01:01:28,789 --> 01:01:27,359
they are making the assumption that it's

1436
01:01:31,589 --> 01:01:28,799
knowledge we all share

1437
01:01:33,190 --> 01:01:31,599
and can be taken for granted as correct

1438
01:01:37,270 --> 01:01:33,200
due to our perceived

1439
01:01:39,750 --> 01:01:37,280
universal human experience however

1440
01:01:40,309 --> 01:01:39,760
there are times when we can be caught

1441
01:01:43,030 --> 01:01:40,319
out

1442
01:01:43,990 --> 01:01:43,040
and what is really happening is that we

1443
01:01:47,829 --> 01:01:44,000
are relying on

1444
01:01:48,470 --> 01:01:47,839
intuition folklore or beliefs for which

1445
01:01:52,390 --> 01:01:48,480
we have

1446
01:01:54,630 --> 01:01:52,400
never truly examined the evidence

1447
01:01:56,309 --> 01:01:54,640
i heard someone say they are not going

1448
01:01:58,789 --> 01:01:56,319
to wait for a vaccine

1449
01:02:00,069 --> 01:01:58,799
that might take years to develop they're

1450
01:02:02,870 --> 01:02:00,079
going to drink

1451
01:02:04,829 --> 01:02:02,880
whiskey and might even investigate

1452
01:02:07,190 --> 01:02:04,839
injecting a type of

1453
01:02:08,630 --> 01:02:07,200
disinfectant if they think they may have

1454
01:02:10,390 --> 01:02:08,640
come into contact with the person who

1455
01:02:13,190 --> 01:02:10,400
has covert 19

1456
01:02:15,109 --> 01:02:13,200
it's just common sense you don't need to

1457
01:02:18,230 --> 01:02:15,119
be a medical expert to know that

1458
01:02:21,670 --> 01:02:18,240
alcohol kills viruses it's true that

1459
01:02:24,390 --> 01:02:21,680
alcohol will kill viruses and therefore

1460
01:02:26,470 --> 01:02:24,400
it is safe to assume that using wipes or

1461
01:02:27,349 --> 01:02:26,480
sprays with sufficient quantities of

1462
01:02:29,510 --> 01:02:27,359
alcohol

1463
01:02:32,309 --> 01:02:29,520
are going to be effective in killing

1464
01:02:34,789 --> 01:02:32,319
pathogens in our homes

1465
01:02:36,230 --> 01:02:34,799
this is common knowledge and correct

1466
01:02:38,390 --> 01:02:36,240
hygiene practices

1467
01:02:39,750 --> 01:02:38,400
have become common sense to a great

1468
01:02:42,870 --> 01:02:39,760
extent

1469
01:02:43,990 --> 01:02:42,880
however it does not follow that once

1470
01:02:45,710 --> 01:02:44,000
ingested

1471
01:02:49,349 --> 01:02:45,720
that the same will occur with

1472
01:02:52,069 --> 01:02:49,359
disinfectants inside our bodies

1473
01:02:52,789 --> 01:02:52,079
not only will it be ineffective there is

1474
01:02:56,309 --> 01:02:52,799
a risk of

1475
01:02:58,150 --> 01:02:56,319
poisoning or even death depending on the

1476
01:03:01,109 --> 01:02:58,160
substance

1477
01:03:02,069 --> 01:03:01,119
if you really think about it it kind of

1478
01:03:04,390 --> 01:03:02,079
makes sense that

1479
01:03:05,190 --> 01:03:04,400
some people think the earth is flat and

1480
01:03:07,750 --> 01:03:05,200
think that

1481
01:03:08,230 --> 01:03:07,760
people on the bottom of the globe would

1482
01:03:11,190 --> 01:03:08,240
simply

1483
01:03:12,950 --> 01:03:11,200
fall off if it was a sphere have you

1484
01:03:15,990 --> 01:03:12,960
ever tipped something upside down

1485
01:03:17,829 --> 01:03:16,000
and seen what happens all of us have

1486
01:03:20,309 --> 01:03:17,839
witnessed what happens when we tip

1487
01:03:22,789 --> 01:03:20,319
something out and it appears to fall in

1488
01:03:25,910 --> 01:03:22,799
a downwards direction

1489
01:03:28,230 --> 01:03:25,920
most of us are also aware of the story

1490
01:03:29,430 --> 01:03:28,240
of isaac newton and the apple falling

1491
01:03:32,150 --> 01:03:29,440
from the tree

1492
01:03:33,829 --> 01:03:32,160
and know that it's due to gravity

1493
01:03:36,230 --> 01:03:33,839
however

1494
01:03:38,470 --> 01:03:36,240
whilst we may think it is common sense

1495
01:03:41,270 --> 01:03:38,480
that things fall downwards

1496
01:03:43,109 --> 01:03:41,280
gravity actually pulls us towards the

1497
01:03:45,430 --> 01:03:43,119
center of the globe

1498
01:03:46,230 --> 01:03:45,440
making it appear that the ground is at

1499
01:03:49,270 --> 01:03:46,240
the bottom

1500
01:03:51,270 --> 01:03:49,280
and the sky is at the top wherever we

1501
01:03:54,069 --> 01:03:51,280
may be standing

1502
01:03:56,069 --> 01:03:54,079
my teacher friend asked her students to

1503
01:03:59,190 --> 01:03:56,079
take a quiz to see what their

1504
01:04:00,789 --> 01:03:59,200
preferred learning styles are as they

1505
01:04:03,349 --> 01:04:00,799
say in education

1506
01:04:05,829 --> 01:04:03,359
students learn best when teaching styles

1507
01:04:08,789 --> 01:04:05,839
are matched to their learning styles

1508
01:04:09,670 --> 01:04:08,799
it's highly intuitive to believe that

1509
01:04:11,910 --> 01:04:09,680
students learn

1510
01:04:13,270 --> 01:04:11,920
best when the way information is

1511
01:04:15,430 --> 01:04:13,280
presented to them

1512
01:04:17,430 --> 01:04:15,440
is in a form that suits the way they

1513
01:04:20,069 --> 01:04:17,440
prefer to learn

1514
01:04:22,630 --> 01:04:20,079
for example this assumes that the

1515
01:04:23,349 --> 01:04:22,640
student who favors a visual style of

1516
01:04:26,069 --> 01:04:23,359
learning

1517
01:04:28,549 --> 01:04:26,079
will then perform best when information

1518
01:04:32,710 --> 01:04:28,559
is presented in a visual format

1519
01:04:36,470 --> 01:04:32,720
such as pictures graphs video etc

1520
01:04:39,109 --> 01:04:36,480
apparently 97 of educators

1521
01:04:42,150 --> 01:04:39,119
believe this to be true and it appears

1522
01:04:45,349 --> 01:04:42,160
to be plain common sense

1523
01:04:45,750 --> 01:04:45,359
however under scientific conditions this

1524
01:04:49,270 --> 01:04:45,760
has

1525
01:04:50,150 --> 01:04:49,280
not proved to be correct research shows

1526
01:04:53,670 --> 01:04:50,160
that around

1527
01:04:54,230 --> 01:04:53,680
70 percent of students do not choose to

1528
01:04:56,870 --> 01:04:54,240
learn

1529
01:04:57,430 --> 01:04:56,880
according to their preferences but

1530
01:05:01,029 --> 01:04:57,440
choose

1531
01:05:04,470 --> 01:05:01,039
multiple styles of learning instead

1532
01:05:07,109 --> 01:05:04,480
furthermore they perform no better

1533
01:05:09,990 --> 01:05:07,119
when given information in a way that

1534
01:05:12,230 --> 01:05:10,000
matches their preferred learning styles

1535
01:05:13,990 --> 01:05:12,240
than when that information is presented

1536
01:05:16,789 --> 01:05:14,000
in another style

1537
01:05:19,109 --> 01:05:16,799
it has proven to be important that the

1538
01:05:22,230 --> 01:05:19,119
focus should be on the quality

1539
01:05:25,430 --> 01:05:22,240
and suitability of the delivery

1540
01:05:28,910 --> 01:05:25,440
of the information not on the learning

1541
01:05:34,789 --> 01:05:31,510
[Music]

1542
01:05:35,510 --> 01:05:34,799
according to voltaire common sense is

1543
01:05:39,829 --> 01:05:35,520
not so

1544
01:05:42,630 --> 01:05:39,839
common although this is a slur

1545
01:05:44,069 --> 01:05:42,640
it is really quite a subjective form of

1546
01:05:47,670 --> 01:05:44,079
knowledge

1547
01:05:50,950 --> 01:05:47,680
it can very much depend on our geography

1548
01:05:54,230 --> 01:05:50,960
culture historicity

1549
01:05:56,549 --> 01:05:54,240
personal experiences etc

1550
01:05:57,510 --> 01:05:56,559
as it is not derived from objective

1551
01:06:00,309 --> 01:05:57,520
facts

1552
01:06:01,349 --> 01:06:00,319
as skeptics it is important to keep this

1553
01:06:04,630 --> 01:06:01,359
in mind

1554
01:06:05,510 --> 01:06:04,640
and always seek the evidence rather than

1555
01:06:08,710 --> 01:06:05,520
succumb to

1556
01:06:09,270 --> 01:06:08,720
intellectual laziness and take common

1557
01:06:12,470 --> 01:06:09,280
sense

1558
01:06:13,670 --> 01:06:12,480
for granted as it is not necessarily

1559
01:06:17,029 --> 01:06:13,680
reliable

1560
01:06:28,789 --> 01:06:17,039
and can't necessarily be asserted

1561
01:06:33,829 --> 01:06:31,910
this time we'll look at a fallacy of the

1562
01:06:35,789 --> 01:06:33,839
single cause

1563
01:06:37,270 --> 01:06:35,799
also known as the causal

1564
01:06:40,470 --> 01:06:37,280
oversimplification

1565
01:06:43,510 --> 01:06:40,480
this fallacy occurs when it is assumed

1566
01:06:46,789 --> 01:06:43,520
that there is a single simple cause

1567
01:06:48,390 --> 01:06:46,799
of an outcome when in fact there may be

1568
01:06:51,029 --> 01:06:48,400
a number of causes

1569
01:06:53,510 --> 01:06:51,039
reducing the causes of a complicated

1570
01:06:56,390 --> 01:06:53,520
issue to a single factor

1571
01:06:57,750 --> 01:06:56,400
may be satisfying in our desire to keep

1572
01:07:01,029 --> 01:06:57,760
things simple

1573
01:07:01,829 --> 01:07:01,039
and sometimes it is helpful to identify

1574
01:07:05,430 --> 01:07:01,839
the most

1575
01:07:07,270 --> 01:07:05,440
significant reasons as to why something

1576
01:07:11,029 --> 01:07:07,280
has happened

1577
01:07:13,029 --> 01:07:11,039
however we also need to keep in mind

1578
01:07:14,470 --> 01:07:13,039
that there are many complicated

1579
01:07:16,630 --> 01:07:14,480
situations

1580
01:07:17,829 --> 01:07:16,640
where multiple factors have to be

1581
01:07:21,109 --> 01:07:17,839
considered

1582
01:07:22,710 --> 01:07:21,119
and the situation is not entirely

1583
01:07:25,190 --> 01:07:22,720
reducible to just

1584
01:07:27,510 --> 01:07:25,200
one i just watched this amazing

1585
01:07:30,870 --> 01:07:27,520
documentary by a celebrity chef

1586
01:07:31,750 --> 01:07:30,880
who said that white flour and white rice

1587
01:07:35,270 --> 01:07:31,760
are causing

1588
01:07:39,430 --> 01:07:35,280
westerners to become obese it's called

1589
01:07:40,069 --> 01:07:39,440
the no pale diet not just because of the

1590
01:07:43,109 --> 01:07:40,079
color

1591
01:07:46,150 --> 01:07:43,119
but because they put the pale

1592
01:07:46,630 --> 01:07:46,160
in paleo all i need do is permanently

1593
01:07:49,990 --> 01:07:46,640
cut

1594
01:07:53,270 --> 01:07:50,000
them out of my diet and i'll be trim

1595
01:07:56,390 --> 01:07:53,280
aside from the appeal to tradition

1596
01:07:57,430 --> 01:07:56,400
and naturalistic fallacies coming into

1597
01:08:00,630 --> 01:07:57,440
play when we

1598
01:08:03,910 --> 01:08:00,640
try and base our diet on what our

1599
01:08:07,109 --> 01:08:03,920
ancestors supposedly ate this

1600
01:08:10,230 --> 01:08:07,119
focus on white grains or even just

1601
01:08:13,510 --> 01:08:10,240
food as the single cause of obesity

1602
01:08:15,029 --> 01:08:13,520
is an oversimplification of what the

1603
01:08:18,149 --> 01:08:15,039
multiple causes

1604
01:08:21,749 --> 01:08:18,159
really are we need to consider

1605
01:08:22,870 --> 01:08:21,759
many factors such as overall caloric

1606
01:08:27,430 --> 01:08:22,880
intake

1607
01:08:32,309 --> 01:08:27,440
genetics mental health education

1608
01:08:35,510 --> 01:08:32,319
resources physical activity and so on

1609
01:08:37,110 --> 01:08:35,520
the president as a secret savior doing

1610
01:08:40,070 --> 01:08:37,120
god's work

1611
01:08:41,590 --> 01:08:40,080
children being trafficked by democrats

1612
01:08:44,789 --> 01:08:41,600
and celebrities in

1613
01:08:46,550 --> 01:08:44,799
underground tunnels there's no

1614
01:08:49,229 --> 01:08:46,560
explanation for believing this

1615
01:08:51,269 --> 01:08:49,239
q a non nonsense other than that

1616
01:08:54,149 --> 01:08:51,279
conspiracy theorists

1617
01:08:55,269 --> 01:08:54,159
must be plain gullible it's hard to

1618
01:08:57,749 --> 01:08:55,279
understand how

1619
01:08:59,990 --> 01:08:57,759
anyone could believe in this kind of

1620
01:09:03,349 --> 01:09:00,000
conspiracy theory

1621
01:09:05,590 --> 01:09:03,359
however believers are not initially

1622
01:09:06,149 --> 01:09:05,600
presented with the information in a way

1623
01:09:10,470 --> 01:09:06,159
that is

1624
01:09:10,870 --> 01:09:10,480
obviously ludicrous gullibility may be

1625
01:09:14,789 --> 01:09:10,880
one

1626
01:09:17,910 --> 01:09:14,799
factor but the beliefs happen gradually

1627
01:09:20,870 --> 01:09:17,920
based on grains of truth and occur

1628
01:09:22,789 --> 01:09:20,880
when there is vulnerability and feelings

1629
01:09:27,510 --> 01:09:22,799
of powerlessness

1630
01:09:30,309 --> 01:09:27,520
mistrust disinformation political bias

1631
01:09:31,749 --> 01:09:30,319
sense of community and a range of other

1632
01:09:34,630 --> 01:09:31,759
factors

1633
01:09:35,349 --> 01:09:34,640
today i talked to my friend about her

1634
01:09:38,789 --> 01:09:35,359
neighbor

1635
01:09:41,189 --> 01:09:38,799
who refuses to vaccinate her children

1636
01:09:43,829 --> 01:09:41,199
we're going to gather some facts and

1637
01:09:46,870 --> 01:09:43,839
once she has the right information

1638
01:09:49,990 --> 01:09:46,880
i'm sure she'll change her mind

1639
01:09:53,590 --> 01:09:50,000
if only human beings were so easily

1640
01:09:56,709 --> 01:09:53,600
influenced by the facts however

1641
01:09:58,709 --> 01:09:56,719
we are all primarily motivated by our

1642
01:10:02,470 --> 01:09:58,719
emotions and biases

1643
01:10:05,070 --> 01:10:02,480
no matter how rational we think we are

1644
01:10:06,870 --> 01:10:05,080
it's a mistake to assume that the

1645
01:10:09,510 --> 01:10:06,880
anti-vaccination crowd are

1646
01:10:10,229 --> 01:10:09,520
simply watching youtube and busy

1647
01:10:14,310 --> 01:10:10,239
obtaining

1648
01:10:16,709 --> 01:10:14,320
false information about vaccines online

1649
01:10:17,590 --> 01:10:16,719
their information is also coming from

1650
01:10:21,030 --> 01:10:17,600
some

1651
01:10:24,229 --> 01:10:21,040
alternative health practitioners

1652
01:10:27,350 --> 01:10:24,239
television the local health food store

1653
01:10:31,669 --> 01:10:27,360
trusted peers family members and

1654
01:10:34,149 --> 01:10:31,679
even maverick doctors and researchers

1655
01:10:37,110 --> 01:10:34,159
members of the anti-vaccination movement

1656
01:10:40,310 --> 01:10:37,120
have all been exposed to the facts

1657
01:10:41,990 --> 01:10:40,320
yet the beliefs persist for various

1658
01:10:45,110 --> 01:10:42,000
other reasons that include

1659
01:10:46,990 --> 01:10:45,120
fear government or pharmaceutical

1660
01:10:50,470 --> 01:10:47,000
company mistrust

1661
01:10:53,910 --> 01:10:50,480
disinformation campaigns grief

1662
01:10:57,270 --> 01:10:53,920
vaccine court payouts religious beliefs

1663
01:10:58,110 --> 01:10:57,280
conspiracy theories and the list goes

1664
01:11:00,790 --> 01:10:58,120
on

1665
01:11:03,270 --> 01:11:00,800
[Music]

1666
01:11:05,830 --> 01:11:03,280
as critical thinkers we know it can be

1667
01:11:09,430 --> 01:11:05,840
necessary to cut through the fluff

1668
01:11:12,229 --> 01:11:09,440
by applying occam's razor and recognize

1669
01:11:13,590 --> 01:11:12,239
that the simplest explanation is often

1670
01:11:17,189 --> 01:11:13,600
the right one

1671
01:11:19,669 --> 01:11:17,199
however our reasoning may be faulty

1672
01:11:20,709 --> 01:11:19,679
if we take an overly reductionist

1673
01:11:23,750 --> 01:11:20,719
approach

1674
01:11:27,220 --> 01:11:23,760
and attribute single causes to

1675
01:11:35,510 --> 01:11:27,230
complicated situations

1676
01:11:40,229 --> 01:11:38,830
this time we'll look at argument from

1677
01:11:42,550 --> 01:11:40,239
gibberish

1678
01:11:44,550 --> 01:11:42,560
this occurs when a person makes a claim

1679
01:11:46,550 --> 01:11:44,560
that something is true

1680
01:11:48,630 --> 01:11:46,560
then supports that claim with an

1681
01:11:51,270 --> 01:11:48,640
explanation that includes highly

1682
01:11:54,390 --> 01:11:51,280
technical jargon from a field that is

1683
01:11:55,910 --> 01:11:54,400
difficult to comprehend it also occurs

1684
01:11:59,189 --> 01:11:55,920
when a claim is based on

1685
01:12:01,669 --> 01:11:59,199
pure gibberish in lieu of a strong

1686
01:12:02,470 --> 01:12:01,679
argument both of these types of

1687
01:12:05,510 --> 01:12:02,480
arguments

1688
01:12:06,390 --> 01:12:05,520
are deliberately obtuse and designed to

1689
01:12:09,189 --> 01:12:06,400
shut down

1690
01:12:10,709 --> 01:12:09,199
or confuse the person questioning the

1691
01:12:13,149 --> 01:12:10,719
claim

1692
01:12:15,830 --> 01:12:13,159
it relies on a person's lack of

1693
01:12:19,110 --> 01:12:15,840
familiarity with the jargon

1694
01:12:22,310 --> 01:12:19,120
or their scientific illiteracy and

1695
01:12:25,510 --> 01:12:22,320
commonly appears in the pseudosciences

1696
01:12:28,950 --> 01:12:25,520
that make reference to such notions as

1697
01:12:32,790 --> 01:12:28,960
energy fields my neighbor was

1698
01:12:34,790 --> 01:12:32,800
researching transcendental meditation

1699
01:12:36,390 --> 01:12:34,800
and came across some information about

1700
01:12:39,350 --> 01:12:36,400
how to achieve

1701
01:12:40,149 --> 01:12:39,360
humankind's ascension into higher

1702
01:12:43,350 --> 01:12:40,159
creational

1703
01:12:46,149 --> 01:12:43,360
forms he said the information could be

1704
01:12:47,270 --> 01:12:46,159
difficult to follow for people not well

1705
01:12:50,630 --> 01:12:47,280
versed in

1706
01:12:53,669 --> 01:12:50,640
spiritual science but the claims were

1707
01:12:54,790 --> 01:12:53,679
all backed by solid arguments rather

1708
01:12:58,070 --> 01:12:54,800
than providing

1709
01:13:00,550 --> 01:12:58,080
solid arguments it is more common to see

1710
01:13:03,510 --> 01:13:00,560
gibberish being used to create such

1711
01:13:06,709 --> 01:13:03,520
arguments to back up the claim

1712
01:13:07,990 --> 01:13:06,719
for example you may see something like a

1713
01:13:11,110 --> 01:13:08,000
claim that

1714
01:13:13,030 --> 01:13:11,120
sentient beings can collectively raise

1715
01:13:14,149 --> 01:13:13,040
the level of the matrix of their

1716
01:13:16,390 --> 01:13:14,159
creation

1717
01:13:19,270 --> 01:13:16,400
through the synchronized raising of

1718
01:13:22,310 --> 01:13:19,280
their vibrational energy

1719
01:13:22,709 --> 01:13:22,320
the role of the earth matrix integrates

1720
01:13:25,790 --> 01:13:22,719
the

1721
01:13:27,750 --> 01:13:25,800
individual realities into that of

1722
01:13:30,709 --> 01:13:27,760
space-time fields

1723
01:13:31,990 --> 01:13:30,719
and awareness systematically flows back

1724
01:13:35,189 --> 01:13:32,000
from the cosmos

1725
01:13:39,110 --> 01:13:35,199
to the consciousness of the human mind

1726
01:13:41,990 --> 01:13:39,120
achieving higher states of evolution

1727
01:13:43,669 --> 01:13:42,000
this kind of word salad is intended to

1728
01:13:46,229 --> 01:13:43,679
sound as though it was actually

1729
01:13:49,189 --> 01:13:46,239
based in science and is deliberately

1730
01:13:51,350 --> 01:13:49,199
phrased in a way to intimidate

1731
01:13:52,950 --> 01:13:51,360
it uses big words and relies on

1732
01:13:56,709 --> 01:13:52,960
scientific illiteracy

1733
01:13:58,709 --> 01:13:56,719
in order to sound convincing it is hoped

1734
01:13:59,669 --> 01:13:58,719
that the reader or listener will simply

1735
01:14:02,950 --> 01:13:59,679
defer

1736
01:14:04,470 --> 01:14:02,960
and accept the argument in an i'll take

1737
01:14:07,669 --> 01:14:04,480
your word for that

1738
01:14:09,590 --> 01:14:07,679
kind of way i saw this ad on my social

1739
01:14:12,110 --> 01:14:09,600
media news feed today

1740
01:14:13,510 --> 01:14:12,120
it claims that the biocharger

1741
01:14:16,790 --> 01:14:13,520
revitalizer

1742
01:14:18,070 --> 01:14:16,800
is a simple and inexpensive device

1743
01:14:20,550 --> 01:14:18,080
designed as an

1744
01:14:21,669 --> 01:14:20,560
integrated energy system that subtly

1745
01:14:25,030 --> 01:14:21,679
stimulates and

1746
01:14:28,550 --> 01:14:25,040
energizes the body's own energy

1747
01:14:30,950 --> 01:14:28,560
in a safe and therapeutic way it has the

1748
01:14:33,990 --> 01:14:30,960
potential to cure fatigue

1749
01:14:36,630 --> 01:14:34,000
generate vitality and enhance

1750
01:14:37,669 --> 01:14:36,640
athletic performance depending on the

1751
01:14:41,030 --> 01:14:37,679
potential of the

1752
01:14:44,550 --> 01:14:41,040
individual user the device produces

1753
01:14:48,390 --> 01:14:44,560
digitally pulsed electromagnetic

1754
01:14:50,790 --> 01:14:48,400
fields p-e-m-p through a range of

1755
01:14:51,350 --> 01:14:50,800
frequencies that the cell can vibrate

1756
01:14:55,030 --> 01:14:51,360
and

1757
01:14:57,350 --> 01:14:55,040
resonate with in a customized way

1758
01:14:59,750 --> 01:14:57,360
such claims often go into technical

1759
01:15:00,790 --> 01:14:59,760
detail in the hope that the jargon and

1760
01:15:03,669 --> 01:15:00,800
references to

1761
01:15:04,790 --> 01:15:03,679
actual physics and biology will be taken

1762
01:15:07,990 --> 01:15:04,800
for granted as

1763
01:15:11,350 --> 01:15:08,000
accurate so-called

1764
01:15:13,830 --> 01:15:11,360
energy medicine relies on debunked ideas

1765
01:15:15,510 --> 01:15:13,840
such as that the body can be charged by

1766
01:15:18,790 --> 01:15:15,520
a biocompatible

1767
01:15:21,910 --> 01:15:18,800
energy field the belief is that the

1768
01:15:24,229 --> 01:15:21,920
individual cells in the body selectively

1769
01:15:27,189 --> 01:15:24,239
resonate with the vibrations and

1770
01:15:30,310 --> 01:15:27,199
frequencies surrounding them

1771
01:15:33,510 --> 01:15:30,320
unhealthy cells supposedly absorb

1772
01:15:36,310 --> 01:15:33,520
more energy as the voltage they generate

1773
01:15:37,990 --> 01:15:36,320
is lower than healthy cells capable of

1774
01:15:41,270 --> 01:15:38,000
producing more of their own

1775
01:15:43,590 --> 01:15:41,280
energy requirements apparently

1776
01:15:46,310 --> 01:15:43,600
all that is required is to provide a

1777
01:15:49,030 --> 01:15:46,320
broad enough range of pulsed harmonics

1778
01:15:52,070 --> 01:15:49,040
and a bandwidth of frequencies in which

1779
01:15:55,430 --> 01:15:52,080
the cells can find their match

1780
01:15:56,950 --> 01:15:55,440
however in the words of skeptoc harriet

1781
01:15:59,910 --> 01:15:56,960
hall

1782
01:16:01,270 --> 01:15:59,920
never mind that cells don't vibrate

1783
01:16:04,950 --> 01:16:01,280
don't resonate

1784
01:16:06,070 --> 01:16:04,960
and don't have frequencies a tuning fork

1785
01:16:09,270 --> 01:16:06,080
can vibrate

1786
01:16:13,430 --> 01:16:09,280
and a radio station can have a frequency

1787
01:16:14,870 --> 01:16:13,440
but a pancreas can't i read a newspaper

1788
01:16:18,070 --> 01:16:14,880
article that said when

1789
01:16:19,669 --> 01:16:18,080
dismissing astrology skeptics

1790
01:16:22,310 --> 01:16:19,679
claim that there is no connection

1791
01:16:25,590 --> 01:16:22,320
between the stars and the human mind

1792
01:16:27,510 --> 01:16:25,600
yet science tells us this is not so

1793
01:16:29,950 --> 01:16:27,520
and we can make connections between the

1794
01:16:32,790 --> 01:16:29,960
two based on an understanding of

1795
01:16:35,350 --> 01:16:32,800
electromagnetism some astrologers draw

1796
01:16:37,430 --> 01:16:35,360
on astrophysics and neuroscience when

1797
01:16:39,510 --> 01:16:37,440
making claims that astrology is

1798
01:16:42,709 --> 01:16:39,520
scientifically proven

1799
01:16:43,430 --> 01:16:42,719
and they concoct explanations that

1800
01:16:46,229 --> 01:16:43,440
combine

1801
01:16:47,030 --> 01:16:46,239
facts from both fields to produce a

1802
01:16:50,950 --> 01:16:47,040
whole new

1803
01:16:53,590 --> 01:16:50,960
false concept for example

1804
01:16:55,910 --> 01:16:53,600
you may see an explanation that states

1805
01:16:59,350 --> 01:16:55,920
the effect of multiple neurons

1806
01:17:02,470 --> 01:16:59,360
firing together in an area of the brain

1807
01:17:06,149 --> 01:17:02,480
generates a measurable magnetic field

1808
01:17:08,470 --> 01:17:06,159
outside the head these neuromagnetic

1809
01:17:11,030 --> 01:17:08,480
signals generated by the brain

1810
01:17:14,550 --> 01:17:11,040
are only around a billionth of the

1811
01:17:17,270 --> 01:17:14,560
strength of the earth's magnetic field

1812
01:17:18,310 --> 01:17:17,280
so it is no great leap to conclude that

1813
01:17:22,149 --> 01:17:18,320
the sun

1814
01:17:24,310 --> 01:17:22,159
moon and planets all which create tidal

1815
01:17:24,830 --> 01:17:24,320
effects in the earth's magnetosphere and

1816
01:17:27,990 --> 01:17:24,840
cause

1817
01:17:29,270 --> 01:17:28,000
fluctuations in the geomagnetic surface

1818
01:17:31,110 --> 01:17:29,280
of the earth

1819
01:17:33,030 --> 01:17:31,120
must have an influence on the human

1820
01:17:35,430 --> 01:17:33,040
brain

1821
01:17:38,630 --> 01:17:35,440
not only is this a false claim that we

1822
01:17:41,990 --> 01:17:38,640
can easily detect by the weasel words

1823
01:17:44,709 --> 01:17:42,000
no great leap to conclude

1824
01:17:46,310 --> 01:17:44,719
the astrologers are hoping to bamboozle

1825
01:17:48,470 --> 01:17:46,320
their target audience with the

1826
01:17:51,750 --> 01:17:48,480
scientific vocabulary

1827
01:17:58,390 --> 01:17:51,760
and try to capitalize on the scientific

1828
01:17:59,910 --> 01:17:58,400
illiteracy of their followers you may

1829
01:18:02,390 --> 01:17:59,920
have heard the expression

1830
01:18:04,870 --> 01:18:02,400
if you can't dazzle them with brilliance

1831
01:18:07,270 --> 01:18:04,880
baffle them with bs

1832
01:18:09,830 --> 01:18:07,280
this is definitely applicable to all

1833
01:18:12,390 --> 01:18:09,840
arguments from gibberish

1834
01:18:14,630 --> 01:18:12,400
whenever we lack the scientific literacy

1835
01:18:15,990 --> 01:18:14,640
to counter these types of arguments

1836
01:18:18,550 --> 01:18:16,000
specifically

1837
01:18:19,430 --> 01:18:18,560
we can still be quite suspicious of

1838
01:18:23,430 --> 01:18:19,440
slabs of

1839
01:18:25,910 --> 01:18:23,440
texts plucked from scientific papers etc

1840
01:18:26,790 --> 01:18:25,920
to create gibberish in support of

1841
01:18:30,870 --> 01:18:26,800
dubious

1842
01:18:33,430 --> 01:18:30,880
claims we can look for weasel words

1843
01:18:35,510 --> 01:18:33,440
and do some research that debunks the

1844
01:18:38,709 --> 01:18:35,520
nonsense

1845
01:18:41,830 --> 01:18:38,719
we can also ask those making the claim

1846
01:18:44,550 --> 01:18:41,840
to explain the science further and

1847
01:18:46,790 --> 01:18:44,560
are likely to discover that their

1848
01:18:54,300 --> 01:18:46,800
ability to do so can be

1849
01:18:57,110 --> 01:18:54,310
extremely limited throwing up a red flag

1850
01:18:59,189 --> 01:18:57,120
[Music]

1851
01:19:00,149 --> 01:18:59,199
knowing a logical fallacy when you hear

1852
01:19:02,950 --> 01:19:00,159
one and

1853
01:19:05,430 --> 01:19:02,960
even knowing its name is important when

1854
01:19:08,870 --> 01:19:05,440
arguing your point of view

1855
01:19:11,270 --> 01:19:08,880
however you may come across as arrogant

1856
01:19:12,070 --> 01:19:11,280
and not get very far if you call it out

1857
01:19:14,390 --> 01:19:12,080
by name

1858
01:19:16,470 --> 01:19:14,400
to your opponent when you hear it being

1859
01:19:19,030 --> 01:19:16,480
used

1860
01:19:19,830 --> 01:19:19,040
if your opponent calls you out for using

1861
01:19:22,070 --> 01:19:19,840
one

1862
01:19:25,110 --> 01:19:22,080
it's time to stop and think about how

1863
01:19:27,270 --> 01:19:25,120
you are making your case

1864
01:19:28,470 --> 01:19:27,280
use your knowledge of logical fallacies

1865
01:19:31,189 --> 01:19:28,480
wisely

1866
01:19:32,470 --> 01:19:31,199
and remember that even if your point of

1867
01:19:34,790 --> 01:19:32,480
view is right

1868
01:19:36,070 --> 01:19:34,800
and you know all the pitfalls in arguing

1869
01:19:38,550 --> 01:19:36,080
your case

1870
01:19:39,750 --> 01:19:38,560
it doesn't always mean you'll win on the

1871
01:19:43,030 --> 01:19:39,760
day

1872
01:19:48,630 --> 01:19:43,040
and as skeptics we must also remember

1873
01:20:05,900 --> 01:19:50,390
i'm michelle bickersma from the vic

1874
01:20:05,910 --> 01:20:16,830
[Music]

1875
01:20:46,470 --> 01:20:19,240
do

1876
01:21:12,830 --> 01:20:57,370
[Music]

1877
01:21:12,840 --> 01:21:16,080
do